Month: August 2009

  • Spurious emails, amusing satire

    Nichole Sprinkle on the truth about the relationship between ADHD and TV watching:

    As reported in the journal Pediatrics in April 2004, researchers at Children’s Hospital in Seattle found that the more television a child watches between the ages of 1 and 3, the greater his or her likelihood of developing attention problems by age 7. More specifically, for each extra hour per day of TV time, the risk of concentration difficulties increases by 10 percent, compared with that of a child who views no TV at all. Excessive viewing was associated with a 28 percent increase in attention problems.

    The lead researcher, Dimitri Christakis, M.D., an associate professor of pediatrics at the University of Washington and co-director of the school’s Institute for Child Health, admits that his study was limited. He based his research on a previous survey of about 1,300 mothers who recalled the television habits of their children in early childhood. Such after-the-fact reporting is considered highly fallible because parents often over- or underreport the amount of TV watched.

    What’s more, the study linked TV viewing to general attention problems, rather than to diagnosed ADD. Study participants were never asked whether their children had Attention Deficit Disorder. Instead, the study looked at five kinds of attention difficulties, including "obsessive concerns" and "confusion," neither of which are core ADD symptoms.

    Nor did the study consider the kinds of programs children watched. Educational programs, such as Blue’s Clues or Mr. Rogers, which have a slower pace, rely on storytelling, and avoid rapid zooms, abrupt cuts, and jarring noises, weren’t differentiated from more aggressive programming. Neither did the researchers consider whether TV viewing and attention difficulties presented a chicken-or-egg situation. Some critics suggest that younger children with pre-existing attention deficits may be drawn to watching TV, while solving simple puzzles or concentrating on games would be an uphill battle. They add that parents of these children might turn to the TV for relief more frequently than parents of kids who have less trouble staying focused.

    The bottom line: Cancel the guilt trip. Plenty of kids who watch little or no TV are diagnosed with Attention Deficit Disorder, and an abundance of evidence points to a genetic connection. The researchers themselves stated that, based on their findings, TV does not cause ADD.

    A commenter on a Paul Krugman column talks about how US engineering students already suffer the effects of globalization:

    As an old engineering professor, I’m on the front lines of this horrific debacle— my field has been eviscerated with particular ferocity. I teach a young American generation condemned to dismal indentured servitude- outsourcing and the H1B have decimated engineering in North America, since foreign grads, as in India, finish schooling with little debt and much lower cost-of-living.

    My students by contrast, are inevitably saddled with staggering debt in their grueling years of training. Those drowning in student loans are “lucky”— if they also suffer injury, auto accident or crime (as victims, not perpetrators), then the vultures in our corrupt financial, health care and legal systems prey upon them relentlessly, reducing them to virtual serfdom (aggravating our recession by draining capital away from consumers and true producers). The brightest graduates suffer the most, and if they slip at any point, rather than being helped, they’re kicked harder and harder while down— apparently the highest “virtue” in our plutocratic Potemkin economy. As a further insult, they are confronted with usurious interest rates and then denied employment due to their credit ratings and unavoidable debt just to be trained— practices so outrageous, they are harshly punished as felonies elsewhere in the world.

    In response to the highly controversial article by Michael Lynch disputing peak oil, Nate Hagens writes a rebuttal (more here). So does Joe Romm and (more entertainingly) so does Man-Bunny Matrix:

    Later, Lynch addresses the claim that oil is becoming more difficult to extract, dismissing this argument as “vague and irrelevant”. His assertion is based solely on the grounds that oil explorers operating mule-drawn rigs in 19th Century Persia, “certainly didn’t consider their work easy.” Advances in technology, Mr. Lynch says, have made oil easier to extract, not more difficult.

    “This is a complete anachronism,” Sheplin said.

    “Look at it this way,” Sheplin went on. “With access to modern mining equipment, at the push of a button, I could sit in a control room in California and pull hundreds of pounds of gold from the Sierra Nevada right this minute, much more than I could have recovered 150 years ago sitting on a streambed with a steel pan. Does this mean gold hasn’t grown more scarce in California? I guess so. Hey, everybody: Gold! Gold on the American River!”

    Another satirical piece by Man-Bunny Matrix about the attempt to use natural gas to power trucks:

    And while Natalia Raquette, senior scientist with the Sierra Club, concedes that emissions from natural gas combustion are lower than those of every other fossil fuel, according to her the benefits end there. "Natural gas production causes terrible environmental damage. At every stage of production you poison the land, you poison the air, and it’s especially tough on fresh water supplies."

    Geoffrey Vanderschpul agrees. He’s a physician by training, who for the last ten years has headed up the mining research group at The Endocrine Disruption Exchange. His team has been studying some of the hundreds of chemicals involved in natural gas mining and processing, and they are as dangerous as they are numerous.“The list is as long as your leg,” Dr. Vanderschpul says. “And they are some of the nastiest and most reactive compounds known to man. They’re injected deep into the earth and mixed right into the water table.”

    Is there any alternative?

    “Sure,” Dr. Vanderschpul says. “Burn coal.”

    Is he serious?

    “Not really, but at least taking it out of the ground is straightforward. You send a guy into a hole and he comes back up later carrying a bucket.”

    It took me a while to figure out that Man-Bunny Matrix is making up names of people and quotations, but in fact, (as best as I can tell), the statements and arguments have some basis in fact. It’s subtle humor that tries to make a serious argument. Those names are hilarious!

    Here’s a long-winded economic analysis doing a cost-benefit analysis of a high school rail from Houston to Dallas. Several economist types weigh in.

    100 Things I learned at the HTC (a local entrepreurial group). My fave:  Ideas are worthless, execution is everything.

  • Key Characteristics of Bogusness

    Lori Robertson on the signs of an inaccurate/misleading email:

    • The author is anonymous. Practically all e-mails we see fall into this category, and anytime an author is unnamed, the public should be skeptical. If the story were true, why would the author not put his or her name on it?
    • The author is supposedly a famous person. Of course, e-mails that are attributed to legitimate people turn out to be false as well. Those popular messages about a Jay Leno essay and Andy Rooney’s political views are both baloney. And we found that some oft-quoted words attributed to Abraham Lincoln were not his words at all.
    • There’s a reference to a legitimate source that completely contradicts the information in the e-mail. Some e-mails will implore readers to check out the claims, even providing a link to a respected source. We’re not sure why some people don’t click on the link, but we implore you to do so. Go ahead, take the challenge. See if the information you find actually backs up the e-mail. We’ve examined three such e-mails in which the back-up material clearly debunks the e-mail itself. One message provided a link to the Tax Foundation, but anyone who followed it would have found an article saying the e-mail’s figures were all wrong. Another boasted that Snopes.com had verified the e-mail, but Snopes actually said it was false. 
    • The message is riddled with spelling errors. Ask yourself, why should you trust an author who is not only anonymous but partially illiterate?
    • The author just loves using exclamation points. If the author had a truthful point to make, he or she wouldn’t need to put two, three, even five exclamation points after every other sentence. In fact, we’re developing another theory here: The more exclamation points used in an e-mail, the less true it actually is. (Ditto for excessive use of capital letters.)
    • The message argues that it is NOT false. This tip comes from Emery, who advises skepticism for any message that says, "This is NOT a hoax!"
    • There’s math involved. Check it. One message that falsely claimed more soldiers died during Bill Clinton’s term than during George W. Bush’s urged, "You do the Math!" We did. It’s wrong.
  • Robert Ebert on AA

    Roger Ebert writes a long memoir about being an AA member:

    In those days I was on a 10 p.m. newscast on one of the local stations. The anchor was an A.A. member. So was one of the reporters. After we got off work, we went to the 11 p.m. meeting at the Mustard Seed. There were maybe a dozen others. The chairperson asked if anyone was attending their first meeting. A guy said, "I am. But I should be in a psych ward. I was just watching the news, and right now I’m hallucinating that three of those people are in this room."

  • Elmer Kelton RIP

    Bill Kaufman writes a lovely essay about Texas novelist Elmer Kelton (who recently died).  ("The Time It Never Rained" is his most acclaimed). Kelton wrote, "the Western field is a literary ghetto. Critics don’t read a Western unless the book is contemptuous of its subject …matter. If you write out of love for your subject matter they’ll dismiss you.”  He adds:

    Saturating Kelton’s work is his love of West Texas. Kelton is no flowery panegyrist of the tumbleweed; growing up amongst men who regard poetical expression as effeminate will stifle one’s urge to write odes to cacti. But he loves his land just the same. As he writes in The Day the Cowboys Quit, “Some people would never understand the hold this land could take on a man if he stayed rooted long enough in one spot to develop a communion with the grass-blanketed earth, to begin to feel and fall in with the rhythms of the changing seasons. There was a pulse in this land, like the pulse in a man, though most people never paused long enough to sense it.”

    Bill Kaufman has written several books including a well-received novel. He seems to write for conservative publications (which is not a problem; I just wish there were more thoughtful conservative writers out there).

    One irony of being a novelist is that you remain unread by your intended audience until after your death. Hey, that’s the nature of the game, I guess.  As ashamed as I am to admit it, I frequently put off reading books by people I know, thinking, “oh, they’ll be around for a while; I’ll certainly get around to reading books by them later.” And then later never comes.

    Another very distinguished Texas author Robert Flynn was a former teacher of mine. I even set up a wikipedia page for him (BTW, I’ll be blogging about him soon). Anyway, his most famous novel was also his first, North to Yesterday. I have had 2 copies of that book for 20 years and still haven’t read it (even though it’s a comic and light book). I wouldn’t call it willful neglect, just procrastination. Back at Johns Hopkins, I had several remarkable novelists as teachers (and several novelists who were not my teachers, but interesting writers nonetheless). I am generally upbeat about these authors and own copies of their books. And yet, out of all the books I own, these books are probably the last book I would probably take off my bookshelf. it’s a strange phenomena; you’re almost taking your friends for granted.

    I have several books by Kelton (even though admittedly I wouldn’t seek out a Western novel). Now is my time to catch up.

  • Public Relations, Monetizing and Niche Blogging

    I thought I had read everything notable by Paul Graham, but here’s his piece about Public Relations.

    PR is not dishonest. Not quite. In fact, the reason the best PR firms are so effective is precisely that they aren’t dishonest. They give reporters genuinely valuable information. A good PR firm won’t bug reporters just because the client tells them to; they’ve worked hard to build their credibility with reporters, and they don’t want to destroy it by feeding them mere propaganda.

    If anyone is dishonest, it’s the reporters. The main reason PR firms exist is that reporters are lazy. Or, to put it more nicely, overworked. Really they ought to be out there digging up stories for themselves. But it’s so tempting to sit in their offices and let PR firms bring the stories to them. After all, they know good PR firms won’t lie to them.

    A good flatterer doesn’t lie, but tells his victim selective truths (what a nice color your eyes are). Good PR firms use the same strategy: they give reporters stories that are true, but whose truth favors their clients.

    Here’s his comparison about bloggers vs. journalists/PR people:

    In other words, the readers are leaving /newspapers/, and they’re not coming back.

    Why? I think the main reason is that the writing online is more honest. Imagine how incongruous the New York Times article about suits would sound if you read it in a blog:

    The urge to look corporate– sleek, commanding, prudent, yet with just a touch of hubris on your well-cut sleeve– is an unexpected development in a time of business disgrace.

    The problem with this article is not just that it originated in a PR firm. The whole tone is bogus. This is the tone of someone writing down to their audience.

    Whatever its flaws, the writing you find online is authentic. It’s not mystery meat cooked up out of scraps of pitch letters and press releases, and pressed into molds of zippy journalese. It’s people writing what they think.

    Jake Seliger rebuts the common belief that it is easy to monetize from blogs:

    Far more seem to make money by showing expertise and then selling said expertise. In other words, they’re producing something useful for the world.

    This makes sense on the face of it, but it also poses problems. Why should a blogger make money only if the blog is related to a stated expertise? (I guess this is a rhetorical question).  The implication is that blogs must occupy some niche (the “Romanian Literature blog,” “the recipes with carrots blog” ) to succeed. But really, all we’ve established is that niche blogging makes it easy to secure advertising. That leads to the question of what content bring in the most ad dollars. And thus a whole series of compromises have begun to intrude upon a blog’s raw honesty.

    In fact, I have several areas of expertise and have even started some niche blogs, but after a while, I just abandoned them and returned to my main blog to post stuff. Sure it looks weird when a post about Igmar Bergman is after a post about Linux drivers and some offcolor humor site.  Sure, I could create categories and organize my site better. Come to think of it, I’m pretty sure I could have URLs that use categories as directories, and I think  there is a way to use different themes for different categories. Frankly, though, I don’t have time to seriously explore that. That’s not a lame excuse, it’s just that the blog is of secondary importance. If I’m blogging, it’s mainly because I’m avoiding doing other more important writing or technical task.  On the other hand, my blog is not so crappy as to make it impossible to find my most important writing.

    Besides, I’m not interested in writing a weblog anyway. I’m interested in writing books. Later this year I’ll be releasing my ebook Noncrappy Things from my Blog. This will organize my best blogposts into a readable form.  Should be fantastic!

    Speaking of books, I should mention that I have been learning about docbook in depth for the purpose of creating ebooks. Gosh, you never would have known this by reading my blog, would  you?

    At the beginning of 2009, I vowed to monetize my online projects better. I still have not done this; it never has been a burning priority (though I have one literary project in which it will be a priority). I suppose I could use a WP theme that is streamlined for ad placement, but I have a 1000 more important things to do. Seriously.

    That is why I am finishing this blogpost and moving onto something else.

  • Nostalgic about Slashdot

    I stopped reading slashdot a few years ago. It became really popular and it was overwhelming to read. Besides, there were all these corporation-oriented topics and tight control over news stories. I jumped ship and went to Digg (which lasted about 6 months before I grew bored with that as well).

    I wrote several book reviews for Slashdot and was delighted to find they were being run. Then, two of my stories were rejected without good reason, and Slashdot’s luster seemed to fade for me. Also, their interface for viewing threads was insufferable. They switched to an ajax interface, and I could never figure out the best way to view things.

    But now that Slashdot has lost web traffic to other geek sites, many of the loyalists remain and the last few times I’ve visited Slashdot, I’ve been pleasantly surprised. Today, I read on slashdot that the SCO vs. IBM and Novell lawsuit (this crazy and baseless lawsuit which became a subject of hilarious ridicule) is now reinstated after a judge rejected a previous summary judgment. I just read a discussion about transgender and was amazed to find that at least 5 of the commenters were transgendered. From a discussion  about why linux battery life sucks, I see this great comment:

    My first Linux install was Slackware (if I remember correctly)…back in 1998. That’s 10 years. And for all 10 of those years, my experience with Linux has been like this…

    Linux Community: ‘This new version of Linux is totally great. Easy to use, great hardware support, best Linux ever. Totally better than Windows!’
    Me: "Ummm, that’s cool and all – but I have a problem with X"
    Linux Community: "*I* don’t have a problem with X! I don’t even believe you have a problem. Where is your proof? It’s totally not a problem with Linux, if it’s even a real problem at all."
    Me: "Umm…okay. Well…all I want to do is be able to X (where X was get on the internet, hear sound, use a wireless network card, have decent battery life – all of which were or are problems). Here’s more information….
    Linux Community: "You are using Y? Y is worthless. Everyone knows Y isn’t supported in Linux because of XYZ. You either need to write your own driver or get a real Y."
    Me: "Can you tell me, specifically, what Y I should buy?"
    Linux Community: "*I* have ABC and it works great. But it’s more than just what is on the box, it’s the chipset and stuff. It’s kind of hit or miss.’
    Me: ‘Wtf? This sucks….I’m going to run Windows’
    Linux Community: ‘N0ob.’

    *six months later*

    Linux Community: "Great news! We’ve totally made it so you can do X"
    Me: ‘Wait, last time you told me you could do X, and that it was easy, and free, and better than Windows. When I said I had problem doing X, you all told me I was crazy and to RTFM!’
    Linux Community: ‘Oh well….yeah…in the past, we’ve had some problems with X. Some users couldn’t do X at all, but now we’ve totally fixed it! Now Linux is is totally great. Easy to use, great hardware support, best Linux ever. Totally better than Windows!”

    ——–

    You get the idea. Months after getting flamed for complaining about how my wireless network adapter doesn’t work in Linux, the Linux community raves about how they’ve improved wireless support.

    I’ve had plenty of problems with Windows….but when I have a problem with Windows, at the very least, people *believe me*.

    After lots of people  rise up to defend the Linux community, some snarky guy comments:

    This post is exactly what is wrong with Linux advocates. Instead of answering the question – why does Linux die when watching DVDs where other OSes don’t – the GP blames the user and suggests another, harder way to do the same thing.

  • God and Ham Sandiwiches

    From a NYT discussion of God (which I didn’t read very closely).

    Premise  1. Nothing is better than world peace.
    Premise. 2. A ham sandwich is better than nothing.

    Conclusion.  A ham sandwich is better than world peace.

  • Joshua Bell and the Washington D.C. Metro

    Apparently I missed this outstanding essay by Gene Weingarten about a little social experiment. The writer invited world famous violinist Joshua Bell  to play a Stradivarius violin for almost an hour in a DC Metro. The results were astounding: Nobody paid attention; Bell received only $30 in tips, and almost nobody actually stopped to listen:

    This is one of those essays which is so beautiful that it’s hard to paraphrase or quote without doing it justice.

    What is this life if, full of care,

    We have no time to stand and stare.

    — from "Leisure," by W.H. Davies

    In his 2003 book, Timeless Beauty: In the Arts and Everyday Life, British author John Lane writes about the loss of the appreciation for beauty in the modern world. The experiment at L’Enfant Plaza may be symptomatic of that, he said — not because people didn’t have the capacity to understand beauty, but because it was irrelevant to them.

    "This is about having the wrong priorities," Lane said.

    If we can’t take the time out of our lives to stay a moment and listen to one of the best musicians on Earth play some of the best music ever written; if the surge of modern life so overpowers us that we are deaf and blind to something like that — then what else are we missing?

    That’s what the Welsh poet W.H. Davies meant in 1911 when he published those two lines that begin this section. They made him famous. The thought was simple, even primitive, but somehow no one had put it quite that way before.

    Of course, Davies had an advantage — an advantage of perception. He wasn’t a tradesman or a laborer or a bureaucrat or a consultant or a policy analyst or a labor lawyer or a program manager. He was a hobo.

    Another great passage about childhood and observation:

    You can see Evan clearly on the video. He’s the cute black kid in the parka who keeps twisting around to look at Joshua Bell, as he is being propelled toward the door.

    "There was a musician," Parker says, "and my son was intrigued. He wanted to pull over and listen, but I was rushed for time."

    So Parker does what she has to do. She deftly moves her body between Evan’s and Bell’s, cutting off her son’s line of sight. As they exit the arcade, Evan can still be seen craning to look. When Parker is told what she walked out on, she laughs.

    "Evan is very smart!"

    The poet Billy Collins once laughingly observed that all babies are born with a knowledge of poetry, because the lub-dub of the mother’s heart is in iambic meter. Then, Collins said, life slowly starts to choke the poetry out of us. It may be true with music, too.

    There was no ethnic or demographic pattern to distinguish the people who stayed to watch Bell, or the ones who gave money, from that vast majority who hurried on past, unheeding. Whites, blacks and Asians, young and old, men and women, were represented in all three groups. But the behavior of one demographic remained absolutely consistent. Every single time a child walked past, he or she tried to stop and watch. And every single time, a parent scooted the kid away.

    Here’s a complete audio of the performance. Thanks Washington Post!

  • Roger Ebert and youth movies

    Has anyone noticed that Roger Ebert’s blog is one of the most happenin’ place on the Net?  It’s quickly becoming a must-read for me. Here are two articles not about health care (but still profound and interesting). Article #1 and Article #2.

    From comments on a Roger Ebert blog column about youth-oriented movies and the dumbing down of American tastes. I will not quote anything from Roger Ebert (although the article was great). :

    One day a few years back I walked into a store that sells posters of all sorts and asked the clerk if she had any posters of Beethoven. She said “The dog?” I said “no, the composer. She yelled out to a co-worker “Do we have any Beethoven posters?” the co-worker yelled back “The dog?”

    Coming out of Pan’s Labyrinth, I heard a 20-something male proclaim to his friends, with no sense of irony, “Man, I haven’t read that much since middle school!” Case in point.

    (more…)

  • Just ordered: Thinkpad T400 laptop!

    Ok, for the last 6 months I’ve been hunting around for a new laptop.  I need a sturdy powerful laptop which had some bells and whistles which would be  useful especially for giving presentations. I ended up spending between $1250-1300. Some observations:

    1. I thought I was saving money by ordering my RAM and hard drive from a third party. Indeed, I did save about $40. In retrospect, that seemed like needless crimping. For $40 more, I could have had the peace of mind knowing that I had only one vendor for servicing my parts. Now I have two vendors to worry about.
    2. I upgraded to a bright NIT display. That cost about $150 more, but I really thought having a laptop whose screen would be clear and sharp in midday sun would be a good feature to have (and good to show off). The display technology apparently uses just about the same amount of energy as regular displays.
    3. One big factor was whether to buy a laptop with a builtin eSATA port. Esata is a standard which is faster than USB 2, but it only comes on high end laptops. After some checking around, I decided instead to buy a separate eSATA adaptor for my ExpressCard. I don’t plan to use this often, but that seems to be something I would use. (Interestingly, the Thinkpad didn’t seem to have firewire either).
    4. I saw lots of excellent laptops selling for $700 or less. The compromise you made was lack of customizability, inferior processors and 5400 rpm hard drives. Upgrading to 320 gig 7200 rpm cost you another $100 or so.
    5. I never ceased to be amazed at how many laptops still have 32 bit Vista on it. After placing my order, I just realized that Lenovo did not list which version of Vista they would install on it (I will need to call to make sure).  Update: Home Premium is 32 bit; what a pain to change!
    6. For $100 more, I paid for the 2 extra years on the extended warranty. Peace of mind.
    7. I had to choose between a 14 inch model and a 15 inch, and my choice ultimately come down to battery life. The smaller you get, the easier it is to carry and the longer battery life.
    8. Lenovo has one of the best reputations for being friendly to the environment and climate change. This means a lot to me.
    9. Two things I rarely found good information about were the ports on the laptop and the quality of the webcam (and Linux support). These sorts of things don’t make the manufacturer any extra money, and yet they are vital to being satisfied with your laptop.
    10. I did something unusual this time. I asked for advice on what laptop to buy on a forum. On Notebookreview.com I found a good forum entitled, “What laptop should I buy?”. You had to fill in a form giving your price range and preferences. Then, within minutes, you get suggestions by people knowledgeable about what you can get in today’s market.
    11. Lenovo is known for high quality Thinkpads, but in some ways, their website is incompetent. They don’t have 24 hour customer support or even weekend support. Shipping dates are  substantially longer than Dell and HP. They use only Intel processors, and the ecommerce tool is not as friendly. Their laptop prices haven’t declined that much over the last 6 months. On the other hand, they have been putting out 15% off coupon deals (in addition to the normal discount). But Thinkpads is their premiere laptop, and so I know the quality of the parts and the build itself is high. 
    12. I had to shop for a replacement router for my mom. Apparently, according to reviews, no one is happy with the performance of 802.11n wifi routers (even though range and performance of the standard itself is supposed to be better). Many savvy people are sticking with the Linksys 54xxx g router, which is surprising. I didn’t see one router under $100 which people are happy with.
    13. I was trying to deal with the dual boot issue, and someone referred me to wubi, which installs ubuntu as a kind of virtual machine on windows. From the faq:

    Is this running Ubuntu within a virtual environment or something similar?

    No. This is a real installation, the only difference is that Ubuntu is installed within a file as opposed to being installed within its own partition. Thus we spare you the trouble of creating a free partition for Ubuntu. And we spare you the trouble to have of having to burn a CD-Rom.

    I actually played around with the idea of buying a cheap 4 gigabyte laptop, but the quality of the builds were not as good; also you usually compromised on memory and ports.

  • Break 4 Love

    A techno song that intoxicated me recently.Techno remix of the song Break 4 love starring Pet Shop Boys.

    Update: The link is fixed.

  • Health Insurance and Amenable Mortality

    Here’s an article by Ellen Norte and C. Martin McKee that tries to compare mortality rates for incidents which might be prevented by health care intervention:

    The concept of amenable mortality was developed in the 1970s to assess the quality and performance of health systems and to track changes over time. For this study, the researchers used data from the World Health Organization on deaths from conditions considered amenable to health care, such as treatable cancers, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

    Between 1997–98 and 2002–03, amenable mortality fell by an average of 16 percent in all countries except the U.S., where the decline was only 4 percent. In 1997–98, the U.S. ranked 15th out of the 19 countries on this measure—ahead of only Finland, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and Ireland—with a rate of 114.7 deaths per 100,000 people. By 2002–03, the U.S. fell to last place, with 109.7 per 100,000. In the leading countries, mortality rates per 100,000 people were 64.8 in France, 71.2 in Japan, and 71.3 in Australia.

    The largest reductions in amenable mortality were seen in countries with the highest initial levels, including Portugal, Finland, Ireland, and the U.K, but also in some higher-performing countries, like Australia and Italy. In contrast, the U.S. started from a relatively high level of amenable mortality but experienced smaller reductions.

    The researchers estimated the number of lives that could have been saved in 2002 if the U.S. had achieved either the average of all countries analyzed (except the U.S.) or the average of the three top-performing countries. Using this formula, the authors estimated that approximately 75,000 to 101,00 preventable deaths could be averted in the U.S. "[E]ven the more conservative estimate of 75,000 deaths is almost twice the Institute of Medicine’s (lower) estimate of the number of deaths attributable to medical errors in the United States each year," the authors say.

    To restate: everybody’s amenable mortality rate has improved, but USA’s rate of improvement is so small that USA is now dead last in it.

    Ed from Gin and Tacos wonders why conservatives are so satisfied with their health insurance:

    My puzzlement is complete and my question is simple: what insurance do these people have and where can the rest of us sign? What the hell is this fantasy world in which medical decisions are “between patients and doctors” without the interference of panels of dour bean-counters, a labyrinthine and faceless bureaucracy, and actuarial tables? These columnists, screaming protesters, and talk radio audiences apparently live in 1923. Their doctor makes housecalls with his leather bag of Olde Tyme medical instruments and is paid for his services in cash or To Kill a Mockingbird style with bags of apples left on his porch. Or if they do have health insurance, it is a silent and unobtrusive entity that lingers in the background for the sole purpose of shelling out money without question for whatever procedure Chuck Norris desires.

    This isn’t remotely about patients’ rights or the sanctity of the doctor-patient relationship. It is, as wingnuts so often fail to grasp, about preferences. A panel of government bureaucrats denying coverage for a procedure deemed experimental is an image worthy of pant-shitting rage; a panel of “reviewers” at Cigna or Aetna doing the same is fine. Having to ask an Obama-appointed bureaucrat for permission to recieve certain procedures is unthinkable; that we routinely do the same thing with our HMOs and PPOs is irrelevant. The mental gymnastics of defending the status quo require either dubious reasoning about why Aetna red tape is better than Uncle Sam red tape or, as is the case with so many demagogues, fabrication of their own curious reality in which we are infinitely free to do as we please and in total control of decisions which affect our lives

    Gin and Tacos really nails it about the problem with libertarian philosophy: it depends on reliable information being distributed equally.

    The good libertarian relies on the free market to solve problems on its own. Take a couple of hamburger chains, for instance. The one that makes bad food will go out of business. Customers won’t eat there! Thus the market, left alone, will punish those who fail to provide what people want. How cute. Let’s leave the airline industry alone – bust the unions, abandon all regulation, let the market set whatever wage it will, let the pilots be on for 36 hours at a crack – and let the same process go to work. Markets will force airlines to keep their planes safe, otherwise no one will pay to fly with them!

    In order for the market to punish the backsliders, consumers must be made aware that Airline X is unsafe. Since we don’t have regulations and inspections, how will we know? Well, look up. We will know which airlines shirk on maintenance and safety when we see their planes plunging out of the sky. Here’s where my Mises Institute friends come in.

    As market acolytes, I believe that they should volunteer to be on the plane(s) that serve the purpose of communicating this essential information to all of us. In the airline industry, the market’s way of telling us who is inferior involves a lot of people dying. The system works really well – let airlines be, see who fails, and punish them with one’s wallet – for everyone except the people on the plane.

    See also: Mark Thompson’s takedown of libertarianism with Monty Python quotes.

    Perhaps I’ve never been a full-fledged libertarian, but I’ve always been a free market enthusiast in general. But the last year has really shaken my political beliefs. Namely:

    1. The financial crisis of 2008 shows the extent to which major lenders will game the political system to extract political concessions. (This may not be a criticism of libertarianism per se, but some might say that more aggressive legislation might have prevented the catastrophe).
    2. The science for global warming is established and growing more urgent, and yet a significant portion of the population doesn’t want to face this fact. The problem with libertarianism here is that a)people don’t see proof of climate warning until the effects are upon us, and 2)private lawsuits intended to recoup damages from global warming are unlikely to happen soon enough (especially if it wreaks permanent damage on your habitat).
    3. In health care reform, libertarians refuse to provide a workable alternative to solve the free rider problem and the fact that certain individuals will be discriminated against because of their health condition.
    4. The American media landscape gives a lot of power to certain political viewpoints which  are friendly to  advertising. I see more similarities than differences between CNN and Fox. He-said/she-said journalism makes it easy for corporations to drown out negative news stories….so much that it begins to seem that a captive audience is more likely to see a Swift Boat attack than a news story debunking it.
    5. More importantly, how much ability do corporations  (and their mouthpieces) have to motivate individuals to become politically active?  Bernard Chazelle believes that in the  “A empowers B to elect C to serve A” paradigm, A= corporations, B=individual voters and C=politicians. Even if this is reductive analysis, I can think of many cases where this paradigm did play out; can individuals be persuaded to act on behalf of the corporation’s self-interest even if it goes against their own? At some point, will this misguided passion turn against the corporations that engendered it?  If astroturf campaigns are effective sometimes, does this imply that democracy itself is fundamentally  a sham?
  • Climate Change, Methane and Permafrost

    An environmental concept: precautionary principle.

    In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. (principle 15).

    Speaking of which, here’s a summary of the latest research about amplifying methane feedbacks

    See also: Clathrate gun hypothesis.  I am not knowledgeable enough or well-versed in science to understand this or evidence, but it’s a term we might be hearing more about. Here’s an article about methanotrophs, methane-eating bacteria.

    if anything, these sorts of articles point to the enormity of the problem and hints that it is not always correct to focus the climate change debate entirely  on human CO2 levels.  There are a lot of things human can’t control – and that is a hard concept for humans to accept. 

    See also my post about permafrost a week ago.

  • Ebert on teen movie cliches

    Roger Ebert about the cute teen movie 10 Things I hate about you.

    I’m trying to remember the last movie I saw that didn’t end with a high school prom. “Ravenous,” maybe. Even the next film I saw, “Never Been Kissed,” ends with a prom. The high school romance genre has become so popular that it’s running out of new ideas and has taken to recycling classic literature.

    My colleague James Berardinelli made a list recently: “Clueless” was based on Emma, “She’s All That” was inspired by “Pygmalion” and “Cruel Intentions” was recycled from “Les Liaisons Dangereuses” (prompting Stanley Kauffmann to observe that it was better back in the days when high school students were allowed to take over city government for a day, instead of remaking French novels). To this list we might also add the film update of Great Expectations, Cinderella’s true story in “Ever After” and “William Shakespeare’s Romeo + Juliet,” which was anything but. There’s even “Rage: Carrie 2”–a retread of “Carrie,” a work that in my opinion ranks right up there with the best of Austen, Shaw and Shakespeare.

    All teenage movies have at least one boring and endless party scene, in which everyone is wildly dressed, drunk and relentlessly colorful (in “Never Been Kissed,” some of the kids come as the Village People). These scenes inevitably involve (a) a fight, (b) barfing, and (c) a tearful romantic breakup in front of everybody. That scene was tedious, and so was a scene where the would-be lovers throw paint balloons at each other. I know there has to be a scene of carefree, colorful frolic, but as I watched them rubbing paint in each other’s hair, I began to yearn for that old standby, the obligatory Tilt-a-Whirl ride.

    It must really be hard watching mainstream movies as a fulltime job (probably like someone who has to review porn titles). Initially appealing, but after that, extremely dull.

    As for teen movies, I recommend Breaking Away, Baby It’s You (flawed but extraordinary), Flirting (realistic and extraordinary)  and (for cuteness factor) Bring It on. Also Election (which has more mature themes, but is really satirical), Caddyshack.  Revenge of the Nerds. Also, Hal Hartley’s Trust is an extraordinary, literate and cool film.  Rock and Roll High School is a fun, rowdy high school film (definitely countercultural).  Other than that, I really hate teen films if only because they’re syrupy and full of cliches about what high school is supposed to do.  Or if not, the teen film is about the weird Napoleon Dynamites who  become cool by virtue of their  weirdness. Back in high school, I was not interested in proms or throwing up, but I was passionate about books, debate team, psychology, Dungeons and Dragons, movies and girls (the last thing I hadn’t actually figured out).

    I just saw the  Star Trek movie which was action-packed, well-versed in Star Trek lore and full of nice surprises and jokes. I remember the first date I went on in high school was to see the film Return of the Jedi.  Other movies I saw with  Susan E:  Kurosawa’s Ran, Koyaanisqatsi: Life Out of Balance, John Sayles’ Brother from Another Planet. Diva, Les Comperes, and one other zany French police comedy whose name escapes me.   Oh, we both loved movies and plays (We also saw Amadeus at the theatre and T.S. Eliot’s Cocktail Party).  Susan was much of a snob as I was; it was delicious. We left the River Oaks movie theatre convinced that Ran was the greatest film of all time. I still have a high opinion of that film (although I recognize that other films are on the same level as it).  Isn’t it ironic that none of the films we wanted to see would be classified as teen movies (except maybe Diva).

  • August Linkdump

    Various unrelated links of general coolness.  Looking over this, I see that a lot of links come from Marginal Revolution (a social science and economics blog).

    A philosophic debate about progressivism vs. libertarianism. Arnold Kling tries to describe progressivism. Tyler Cowen tries to elaborate in a less pejorative wayMatt Yglesias tries to explain libertarianism (and how it’s supposed to work). Mark Thompson analyzes libertarian principles by looking at quotes from Monty Python.

    From a commenter on a blogpost about cross country comparisons:

    All the wingers I know hold three immutable beliefs:

    1) They believe everyone below them in society is immoral, lazy, contemptible and undeserving of anything they have.

    2) They believe everyone above them is moral, industrious, admirable and deserving of everything they have.

    3) They greatly overestimate their position in this food chain.

    Speaking of health care, I keep forgetting to blog this although I’ve mentioned it on facebook several times. Here’s a comparison of European health care with American health care

    Progressivefox on how I lost my health insurance at my hair stylist:

    Your ex comes by to pick up your son and tells you that the municipality he works for’s administrator told him in absolute shock that the insurance company slapped a million dollar surcharge on the municipality’s insurance policy, and said it would go on yearly until you are off, but since you had exercised your right to COBRA it would “do no good” if your ex was gone. The administrator said he was so shocked and offended that he went to ALL the other carriers possible, and one by one they all gave him back a “no bid” with the proviso that they would welcome the opportunity to bid…just as soon as that leukemia patient’s COBRA rights expire. So barring leaving all the municipality’s employees naked of insurance they were absolutely trapped.

    Matt Yglesias on the false use of the word “rationing" when talking about health care:

    Similarly, your kid is entitled to go to a public school. They’ll teach him reading and writing and some science and history and probably Spanish or French or some such. But in the vast majority of places, you can’t have your kid taught Japanese at taxpayer expense. Again, though, we don’t live in a dystopian universe of “language rationing” in which it’s impossible to learn Japanese, you’d just have to pay someone else to do it. We of course could ban the market in private foreign language instruction, but it’s not clear why we would do that, and the existence of public sector provision of Spanish language instruction doesn’t in any sense imply a ban on the teaching of other foreign languages. What’s more, even if you’re incredibly troubled by the fact that today’s poor children don’t have the chance to learn Japanese in public school it’s still the case that eliminating public schools and lowering taxes isn’t going to leave those kids any better off. They still won’t know Japanese and now they also won’t be able to read.

    David Goldhill proposes an alternate way to provide insurance: require  catastrophic insurance for  everybody and HSA’s for ordinary procedures. I don’t agree with the prescription, but he has a lot of interesting ideas in this article.

    Kathleen Hall Jamieson analyzes how the media is providing inadequate coverage of health care legislation by focusing on town hall meetings.

    BILL MOYERS: So the protests seem to be making some people more sympathetic to the protesters?

    KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: And potentially the press then picks that up, polls, finds that sympathy, creates a structure that suggests that health care reform initiatives are losing support. Now polls have driven press coverage which says "Obama on the defensive. Obama struggling to explain. Obama trying," when, in fact, the dynamic under that has been created by a news structure that decided to cover this in a certain way, to do polling in a certain way. And those two things played into the process to make it more difficult for the discussion to actually happen about the substance of what’s going on.
    DREW ALTMAN:
    So it’s exactly right. So we have the protests, the media coverage, especially the 24-hour news cycle, follows the protests and the town meetings. Then the polls poll about the media coverage of the protests. And we create almost an alternative reality about what is occurring out there.
    When you look at the real polls about where the public actually is, what you see is there’s been a little bit of a tick down in public support and people are getting a little anxious as they follow the media coverage. But still the majority of the American people are for moving forward with this.
    And we have seen more people begin to say, "Gee, I’m not so sure that this is good for me and my family," but it’s still a small number. It’s only 20, 22 percent who say, "I’m a little bit worried about this." And a much bigger number say, "I still think this is good for me and my family." And then you’ve got a group in the middle who’s not so sure. And everyone’s fighting for that group on both sides.

    Gummy Bear song video. Wildly popular among children. (Found from a list of top 10 search terms by children).

    Google video has episodes of Sifl and Olly (a 20 minute puppet  show on MTV in the 1990s). Here’s episode 1. If you go on a watching marathon,  watch only the clips which are 20 minutes.

    Various essays about the role of sexual fantasies.

    List of the words most commonly looked up on the New York Times site.

    A commenter explains why “Google is the #1 search term on other search engines.

    Many users get confused between the search bar and the address bar. Also, if the URL is invalid ("google"), Internet Explorer will use the default search engine (often Google) to search for the invalid URL, then redirect the user to a search page. The user ends up where s/he intended to be, so this behavior doesn’t change and becomes ingrained.

    The end result is, yes, that Google users end up googling for Google. The top search term on Bing and Yahoo is "Google", unsurprisingly, and the top term on Google is "Yahoo". The second term on Google is now "Google", edging out the former top contender "sex".

    ˙ɟʇn sǝʌןoʌuı ʇı :ʇuıɥ ˙uʍop ǝpısdn ʇxǝʇ ɹnoʎ ǝʞɐɯ oʇ uoıʇɐɔıןddɐ qǝʍ ןooɔ

    I have been very busy with various things over the past few weeks. Sorry I haven’t had much time to blog regularly.

    Also, I’ve been watching Lost on my Roku. Can’t get enough of it!