You might already know that I’m a rabid fan of sitcoms. That is the reason I keep an ongoing list of favorite sitcoms. Here are some of my thoughts about the genre:
It is always wonderful to have older characters be guest stars. Often these characters are played by immensely talented actors who at one time were famous. I just watched two episodes of the Middle which featured guest stars Norm MacDonald, Marsha Mason and Jerry Van Dyke. These actors had only small parts, but it was nice to see them again!
Many good shows have one bona fide asshole character. Often their negative energy can bring out the best in other characters. (Besides it’s always a plot art to humanize the asshole).
As good as three camera filmed-before-a-live-audience shows are, one camera shows have a lot of movement and energy and rapid scene changes which can make up for the silence. “Arrested Development had so many scene changes in a single episode that you were never bored.
I’m surprised at how many shows have gotten away with doing the same plot over and over again. Keeping Up Appearances, Three’s Company, Allo Allo, Get Smart, etc.
Most sitcoms fail because of bad ratings; it often has nothing to do with the scripts or talent.
I think 80% of the recipe for a successful sitcom is not great writing, but finding the perfect actor for the part. I was thinking of the Middle; all the characters and especially the kids seem born to play their parts.
Good to have a gimmick. It helps to have some narrative novelty even if it doesn’t always work. The Bernie Mac show had two brilliant things: 1)Bernie Mac breaking the fourth wall to rant about something and 2)onscreen text to comment on dialogue being spoken. Both provided endless amounts of hilarity.
Raunch and potty humor is beginning to be a problem on sitcoms. There are fewer restrictions about subject matter on contemporary TV, but lowbrow humor rarely pays in the long run.
One person online said that sitcoms by definition are not particularly memorable; it’s more the exception rather the rule. There is some truth in this. Plots tend to repeat themselves (even on the same sitcom), and jokes and character conflicts tend to recur throughout a show’s history. On the other hand, talented actors can inject something fresh into each iteration, and that is worth mentioning. Finally, the amnesiac quality of sitcoms may in fact be an advantage because it leads to rewatching. You may already know that George Constanza is going on a blind date set up by Elaine and Jerry, but it is still fun to watch the sequence again.
Time Magazine’s Person of the Year for 2019 should be Dallas woman Reality Winner.
Reality Winner (yes, that’s her real name which was given at birth) served in the Air Force and was a multilingual American intelligence specialist who did her job well. Her Wikipedia page states that she learned Arabic, Dari and Pashtun to provide humanitarian aid to women and children in Afganistan. She frequently made donations to the Syrian human rights group White Helmets and Toys for Tots charity.
Reality Winner’s “Crime” (aka, Truth)
In 2017 she printed a copy of a document detailing the extent of Russian attempts to hack into US voting machines and spearphish emails to election officials before the November 2016 election. She shared it with the Intercept; it was important because it provided evidence to the public that Russian interference in the election was real and far more widespread than we could have suspected. Also, it occurred much later in the election than previously revealed. At the time it sent shockwaves throughout the media. Maybe this would eventually come out anyway in its own time (thanks to journalists). But at the time, this was fresh information.
As it happens, Reality was caught and immediately jailed. She was charged with “removing classified material from a government facility and mailing it to a news outlet.” She was arrested without receiving her Miranda rights and then denied bail. Because the case involved national security, it was hard to offer a defense without being able to refer to secret methods and information. One article describes the difficulty:
Additionally, the government claimed they had subject matter experts who concluded Winner’s “unauthorized disclosure caused exceptionally grave harm” to “national security.”
“If you look at the brief of the transcript in the detention hearings, that was explicitly used by the government to justify her being detained,” Nichols contended. “Because their argument is, well, because this caused grave and exceptional damage. If you let her out, she could do it again and thus cause more grave and exceptional damage. Again, that’s the buzzwords the government used.”
“You don’t have to prove the grave exceptional damage. You just have to put someone on the stand who will say, yes, it did cause grave and exceptional damage. And then the issue is, can you give us more detail?”
Prosecutors answer, “That’s classified. That’s highly classified,” Nichols said. “So it’s this circuitous argument that unfortunately that’s the way the Espionage Act is setup.”
At no point in the course of the case did the government have to publicly outline what constituted “exceptionally grave damage.” They even insisted they did not have to prove damage occurred, as they used the allegation to inflict further punishment upon Winner in detention hearings.
Prosecutors found some absurd and off-handed remarks Winner made about Osama bin Laden to deny her bail. As the defense attorney says in the same article, “There’s a reason why you can’t say certain things in front of the jury. Because if you say, hey, this person kicks puppies and burns down orphanages and then you come back and say, my mistake. That was somebody else. You can’t unring that bell.”
Another problem is that the Espionage Act is outdated and doesn’t have provisions to allow whistleblowers to explain why they performed the act they did. As the Standwithreality website explains:
The vague language of the Espionage Act makes it ripe for abuse, making it a potential weapon against both whistleblowers as well as news outlets that publish leaked documents.
Does the Punishment Fit the Crime?
Eventually a plea bargain of 5 years and 3 months was agreed to, and now Reality Winner sits in a Fort Worth federal prison.
But wait, that seems steep for this kind of crime. Reality didn’t really harm anybody except in a hypothetical sense. Her actions helped Americans to understand the extent of Russian involvement and was done purely for selfless motives. Reality Winner did not expect to become famous or make a lot of money. She just wanted the truth to come out.
I really can’t speculate about the extent of the damage to sources and methods. Perhaps I am not privy to certain details. But if you read Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s book, Secrecy, you will see how throughout US history, falsehoods were often hidden under the veil of secrecy. “Secrecy is for losers,” the book said. “[It’s] for people who do not know how important the information really is.” Publicly available information and news reports can be vetted and challenged and confirmed, while classified intelligence briefs rarely undergo the same skeptical rigor. This sort of history convinces me that secrecy is much more harmful to US interests than disclosures.
I can’t speculate on Winner’s intent, but the disclosure was only one 5 page document which referred to a past series of events. In a way, the Obama had released a summary with the same conclusions in December 2016, and while this document shares more detail, these technical details don’t really hurt national security (other to say that the federal government hires security contractors who can do competent forensic analyses).
Winner agreed to the plea bargaining mainly because the Espionage Act left her with a crappy hand. But this sentence was unduly punitive and more geared to setting an example (than matching the punishment with the crime).
Therefore Reality Winner would be a perfect case for clemency. She served her time already; the government made their point clearly. Now it’s time to set her free. Really, that decision is up to Donald Trump.
Why is Donald Trump doing nothing about this?
A simple executive order could correct this injustice.
Believe me, I get it that Trump has little reason to intervene. He doesn’t really care about cases unless they improve his standing with his base — and frankly, Trump’s base could care less about Winner. Releasing Winner won’t really help Trump politically or financially, and so Trump will ignore her.
Trump bears considerable animus towards the press. But wait — this case doesn’t really hurt Trump except insofar as it implicates the Russians even more.
But Trump has intervened in many cases where the person was less deserving:
Trump pardoned Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, despite his long record of targeting immigrants and disobeying lots of local and federal court orders.
Trump pardoned Michael Behanna for killing an Iraqi man who he had taken in custody. A military court found him guilty of “unpremeditated murder in a combat zone” and sentenced him for 25 years.
Trump pardoned Derrick Miller who was sentenced to life (with a chance of parole) for the premeditated murder of an Afghan civilian during a battlefield interrogation.
Trump pardoned Clint Lorance who was court-martialed and sentenced to 19 years for murdering two civilians in Afghanistan.
Trump reversed a demotion of Eddie Gallagher who was involved in the killing of an Iraqi and (according to various news sources cited on Wikipedia), allegedly took “random shots” into buildings, shooting and killing an unarmed old man in a white robe as well as a young girl walking with other girls. After Gallagher mortally wounded the prisoner, he was eventually exonerated simply because the medic decided to expedite the prisoner’s death simply as an act of mercy. (Gallagher was later convicted of posing with the corpse ).
I would not want to be in the same room as any of the people Trump picked as worthy of clemency. Perhaps it is belaboring the point to add that many of Trump’s inner circle (Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Michael Cohen, Rick Gates and Roger Stone) committed serious federal crimes of moral turpitude. Suffice to say that Trump is perfectly comfortable working with people who have bent the rules to suit the occasion. You can’t set one standard for Reality Winner and another standard for people who in some cases have actually compromised security interests.
What would you do?
For a while, let’s leave aside the question of whether Reality Winner is being scapegoated here. Let’s remember that Chelsea Manning released a lot of (embarrassing but not secret) diplomatic cables to Wikipedia and Edward Snowden released a tremendous amount of top secret NSA docs revealing aspects to the US surveillance apparatus. There are others. Manning was sentenced to 7 years, but it was reduced to 3 years. Snowden lives in Russia and never has returned.
What are some common threads here? All 3 were very young when they took action. All thought it was the public interest for Americans to know what they learned at their job. All knew that disclosing was a risk and they would potentially face legal consequences. Snowden and Reality Winner were government contractors and put in a situation where they couldn’t really use a protected whistleblower status to complain. Manning saw video footage of US troops killing indiscriminately; Snowden saw tools which allowed all kinds of surveillance which seemed at odd with American values. Reality Winner saw shocking information indicating that Russian spying had not declined after Obama’s warning but was in fact continuing. She decided that Americans needed to know.
Part of the problem is that an underling lacks the power to determine what should be secret and public. It would be crazy to allow people on the bottom rungs of sensitive positions to disclose whatever they want. Protocol needs to be followed.
On the other hand, a bureaucracy which depends on workers staying quiet about everything is doomed to leak eventually. Workers at such organizations need to believe in the mission, and all three people were disillusioned in some way. A lot of this disillusionment stemmed from the contrast between professed and actual American political values. Possibly they were just young and naive.
Manning and Winner paid a price for their actions. But of course they knew these risks although maybe they didn’t appreciate the full consequences.
Perhaps you could make the argument that Snowden revealed too much about existing programs, and these revelations threatened the ability of the NSA to do work. But this is not true of Winner because the only thing she revealed was past actions made by a foreign country.
I want there to be more Reality Winners in our country. And that is why I want her freed. Yes, it’s kind of hilarious that a woman who was actually given this name at birth was imprisoned for being too in touch with the ugly reality of the global threat.
But Reality Winner has been punished enough. It is time to let her go. Keeping Winner is prison is essentially saying that Americans should never have to confront the ugly realities locked away behind closed doors. Reality’s heroism is recognizing that sometimes you have to break the rules when it’s the only way Americans can learn certain vital facts.
Winner’s leak had immediate, tangible results. On the day after the story was published in The Intercept, a federal agency — the U.S. Election Assistance Commission — sent out a bulletin to state officials warning about the security issues that had been disclosed. A number of state and local officials said they hadn’t been warned about this specific Russian threat and that in fact the Winner disclosure was the first they’d heard of it. Perhaps more importantly, her blown whistle put new pressure on Washington to investigate a problem that Team Trump and its allies on Capitol Hill wanted to disappear.
The result was last week’s stunning report on Russian election interference from the Senate Intelligence Committee, a GOP-led panel. It revealed for the first time that the Russian 2016 operation targeted election systems in all 50 states, that hackers had the ability to change key data in Illinois and that, in the words of the New York Times, this was “an effort more far-reaching than previously acknowledged and one largely undetected by the states and federal officials at the time.”
That lack of either acknowledgment or detection is precisely the reason that Reality Winner risked everything to blow the whistle.
As blogger Marcy Wheeler pointed out last week, it took both the Winner leak and subsequent prodding from Democratic members of Congress for either VR Systems or the FBI to take Russia’s apparent 2016 computer break-in of that vendor’s software seriously. Investigative efforts by Sen. Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, revealed that despite some back-and-forth between VR Systems and the FBI before the 2016 general election, the vendor didn’t hire a contractor — FireEye — to investigate until after Winner’s disclosure (and, thus, long after the election).
December 5, 2021 Update. Reality Winner did an interview with 60 minutes. She’s still under house arrest, but finally had an opportunity to speak her mind. Among the more interesting revelations: Winner felt that this disclosure did not reveal any of the federal government’s methods and procedures for spying.
I had fun writing this article and I tried to take the exercise seriously even though it was just an exercise. I was also catastrophically wrong. I couldn’t anticipate that Trump would run for president or even have a shot. He was just too amoral and full of shit — even for Republicans. At the same time, I immediately ruled out Bernie Sanders as too old and fringe. Since that time, I have seen that Americans are a lot more accepting of older candidates than they used to be, and that the Overton window of Sanders’ unabashed progressivism has been effectively shattered. I also began to look at the race as a kind of perverse reality show where the object is not necessarily to win but to be the last person standing. I now recognize that coastal liberalism may resonate differently in the heartland.
For the 2020 election these will be the important questions: 1)Do we want systemic or incremental change in health care? 2)Which candidate has led an exemplary life? (How important are family values, honesty and being a good role model? Disgust with Trump will cause Americans to focus on this a lot more than usual). 3)Who will restore our standing in the world? (Trump has been ruining our global standing; even Republicans are saying that) and 4) What kind of industrial policy will win support of the business community AND help the underclass to improve their lot?
Here are some secondary questions: how willing will the donor class be to donate to this person’s campaign? Donors not only want beneficial policies, they also want steady and reliable administration. But the 2016 election repudiated this idea. Cruz and Bush received lots of donor support, but this didn’t translate to public support. Hilary received lots of donations, but Sanders received more grassroots support and wasn’t that penalized by lacking Clinton’s fundraising apparatus. Perhaps the more critical question is : how easily can the candidate rally supporters? Trump, Obama and Sanders did a great job on this. Hilary Clinton did a rather mediocre job.
Among the Dems, it seems the choice is mainly between a female Senator and a male who is a business tycoon or former governor. In the past, we have typically said that governors and business people make better executives, but I don’t know if that applies anymore. Maybe when two candidates go head to head the dynamics will seem different, but my default assumption is that women are the angry class for the election and come out overwhelmingly for the female candidate. Females come into this election believing that they were robbed in 2016.
By 2019 I predict that any enthusiasm for Trump will have disintegrated, and Americans on both sides will be hungering for someone more dignified and honest. (Mitt Romney — if he were 10 years younger — would have fit the bill perfectly).
In 2016, I was more interested in figuring out who would win the Republican primary (Hilary Clinton seemed like a shoe in). For 2020, though it’s a wide open race for Democrats; Republicans has a smaller base of potential candidates, and they need to have demonstrated independence and judgment of Trump, but also not to alienate Trump/Breitbart voters too much.
Republicans
Rick Perry. Perry is adept at understanding the political equation of various situations. He could probably manage to convince voters that he’s independent from Trump and assuage Trump voters that he’s secretly one of them. Terrible policies and ideas, but great fund-raiser, great populist and a good party man. His Oops moment and media personality in Dancing with the Stars can only help him.
Jeff Flake. Definitely the man to watch, especially if/when the American public and Republican voters sour on the Trump brand. He’s actually a conventional politician with many interesting ideas and a capable spokesman for them. Expect him to run against Trump if Trump runs for re-election.
Ted Cruz. It’s still scary to think that Cruz would have been the Republican nominee if Trump hadn’t won. He probably has a more mature understanding of politics now and probably is mending fences with other GOP politicians, but I don’t think this race is Cruz’s turn to run for president.
John Kasich. Because his state is of strategic importance and because Kasich has governing experience and lots of federal experience, he would also be a formidable opponent — especially since he’s claimed to be more anti-Trump as time goes by. He also has worked with Hickenlooper to support a plan to fix Obamacare. Republicans might look to Kasich as someone who can forge private health care reform with Dems. But Ohio is a small place, and the US is a gigantic country.
Marco Rubio. See my comments about Ted Cruz above. Unlike Ted Cruz (who is formidable rhetorically), Rubio seems to be a lightweight politician. In a decade people may perceive him differently, but not now.
Rob Portman has been an incredibly successful politician who has stayed out of the media glare. On paper, he looks impressive. But it’s hard to imagine Portman emerging if Kasich is a strong contender. Also the impressive things about Portman tend not to win Republican primaries.
Mike Pence. Under Trump’s best case scenario, Pence will carry on the Trump legacy. But Pence alienates a lot of people, and he’s incredibly lightweight on substance.
Nikki Haley — Frankly her only qualification is that she is a woman who is a capable politician. Other than that, there is no particular reason for her to run (much less be elected).
Democrats
Amy Klobuchar. On paper she looks like the Dem candidate most capable of winning in the Midwest. She has a great background in policymaking and is personable and friendly, but not a particularly good speechmaker (Nov 2018 Update. I’ve definitely changed my mind about that last thing). She has more national experience than Kamala Harris, making her the most likely female candidate. The most important thing is that she’s very centrist/bipartisan and understands the legislative process very well. One notable problem is that Klobuchar does not support single payer. That is a deal breaker for many Democrats. Politics aside, it would be fun to see a person with that strange a name to become president.
Al Franken. Franken could be persuaded to run for president — especially if Trump runs for re-election, but I get the sense that Franken is not that ambitious — nor does he have a grand vision. UPDATE: I do not think the accusations of sexual harassment will make a difference one way or another.
Julian Castro. He has enormous potential as a politician, but he needs to run for governor — plus he needs to be reasonably confident that he can win his own home state!
Elizabeth Warren. I think she’s a great rallier of the troops, rhetorically very powerful and has a great vision. But she’s divisive and aside from banking and health care, she doesn’t have a lot of foreign policy experience.
Kamala Harris. Sharp lawyer with good political instincts and good rhetoric. She’s new to the national scene, and I don’t see Americans as favoring Harris over Klobuchar (except if you want single payer).
Sherrod Brown. He’s a reliable progressive, but if he did not live in Ohio, I doubt that Americans would rally behind him.
Tom Steyer. He’s definitely running if Trump stays in for 2020. I probably support his climate advocacy, but I don’t want billionaires wanting for president — Dem or Republican.
Deval Patrick. He’s very impressive. African-American, successful Massachusetts governor and businessman. (Even with Bain Capital!) He’s a great speaker, but he’s been involved in a lot of urban issues — which doesn’t really help with winning the heartland.
Mark Cuban. He will jump in the race only if Trump runs for re-election. But I think Steyer is more of a politician/progressive. Cuban is too much of a celebrity, and I think by 2020 Americans will be yearning for non-celebrities.
John Hickenlooper. He and Kasich had talked about a Unity ticket for president in 2020. He’s also very impressive, and he’ll be 68 in 2020. Not particularly progressive, but is ahead of the curve on social issues (like gun control, cannabis, etc). Not a particularly great speech giver.
Michael Bloomberg — Sorry, he’s too old, although in retrospect he should have run in 2016.
Gavin Newsom. handsome and dynamic businessman who is now in the upper echelon of California politics. Cares a lot about gay marriage, homelessness and education. But he’s too young and probably fits the caricature of the out-of-touch California liberal.
Kirsten Gillibrand. Probably the most energetic of female politicians, and a good communicator besides (though lacking the gravitas of a Warren/Clinton or even Kamala Harris). I think she benefits from Hilary-sympathy; I just wonder how well she plays with Middle America.
Andrew Cuomo. I thought he was a strong candidate for 2016, but he didn’t run and doesn’t seem especially popular in NY. Being associated with NY is not going to help in 2020.
Cory Booker. Good affable politician and he pops up all the time on talk shows and news shows. He serves on the Foreign Relations committee, so he stays well-informed about global issues. I don’t see anything special about him , but he is a skillful media personality — that can only help him.
Jay Inslee. (added July 2018). Inslee is a successful Washington governor, ex-congressman and former HHS staffer under Clinton. He also has the best climate change credentials of the bunch — plus he has experience as a governor — something rare among Democrats. In late 60s, old but not too old. He’s a very polished individual, and if Tom Steyer and Bill Gates were to throw money at him, he would be unstoppable.
Single Payer: As of today, Harris, Warren, Brown, Franken, Booker , Gillibrand support single payer. I assume that Gavin Newsom and Steyer also support it. Hickenlooper supports a bipartisan improvement on Obamacare with Kasich. Klobuchar does not support single payer, but might support it later.
TO SUMMARIZE:
REPUBLICANS. If we assume that Trump does not run for re-election, that leaves us with three Republican candidates: Rick Perry, Jeff Flake and John Kasich. Flake has the best vision of the three, is most likely to appeal to undecideds and quickly established his independence from Trump. Then again, ever since Goldwater’s stinging defeat, Republicans have generally not chosen an intellectual/policymaker type (with Jack Kemp being the notable exception). Assuming that Trump is not in prison, Rick Perry has the ability to straddle the MAGA types and mainstream conservatives, plus it’s his turn. Kasich is probably smarter and better at economics and industrial policy, but he never really had national prominence. He also has endorsed the bipartisan Obamacare fix plan with Hickenlooper while maintaining his conservative credentials. But Perry has more ability to rally the troops. My prediction: John Kasich.
Among Democrats, I really don’t know. They have a lot of media savvy politicians (Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Kristen Gillibrand) and two impressive governors (Patrick, Cuomo, Hickenlooper), several impressive women (Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Warren) and several midwest politicians (Klobuchar, Hickenlooper). Among these, I think Patrick, Gillibrand and Klobuchar stand out.
Out of all the politicians, the only ones who are climate hawks are Tom Steyer, Cuomo, Gillibrand.
For health care, Klobuchar and Hickenlooper do NOT support single payer. That is not in the Democratic mainstream right now. At the same time in 2016 Colorado voted against single payer; it’s hard to predict how angry people will be in 2019 and 2020 about health care.
2020 will be the year of the female Democratic candidate. Which women can win a 2020 election? Also: which women can push most successfully for single payer? Gillibrand is very partisan and a good speechmaker and has access to a lot of campaign donations. Harris and Gillibrand strongly support single payer. Klobuchar is more middle-of-the-road and bipartisan, less of a firebrand.
The question becomes: which Democrat is capable of bringing us to a viable health care solution? Really, the only people who could do this are the ones who are NOT endorsing Single Payer. Maybe Bernard Sanders could do this. Maybe Hickenlooper or Deval Patrick could. By 2019, the country could be in a completely different mood, paving the wave for a hyperpartisan candidate like Gillibrand or Harris.
For the Democratic candidate, I predict Amy Klobuchar . (If the health care system implodes by 2019 and the race becomes very hot, maybe Gillibrand will seem more appealing). I don’t like Klobuchar’s incremental approach to health care, but she knows the heartland, sees things from the point of view of small businesses, and she has deep relationships with other lawmakers. She is not a lightning rod to controversy. She is open to compromise.
In 2nd place, I’m predicting Deval Patrick. Progressive politician and great speaker with business experience. He’s done a lot of work with cities. I’m less confident about his ability to reach the heartland.
Jan 8 Update: Since writing this, the sexual harassment bugaboo, a lot of things have happened. Franken is out, Gillebrand has gotten ahead of the curve on this, and Oprah gave a rousing speech at the Golden Globes. I don’t think Oprah will run in 2020 unless Trump stays in (and even at that, it’s a slim possibility). Mark Zuckerberg is being talked about, as is Nikki Haley. But Zuckerberg probably would have more financial entanglements than Trump ever would, and probably already enjoys his political influence now, and Haley is glued to the mouth to Trump. I stick with my prediction that 2020 will put a woman into the White House, and that it will be a Senator to do it.
March 7 Update. I actually am amazed that everyone is assuming that Trump would run for re-election. Frankly, that would be outstanding news for Dems, but I still think it doubtful. I think the Medicare Extra for All is capable of ensnaring fence sitters like Klobuchar.
August 5 2018 Update. I listened to some keynote speeches at NetRoots Nation by Warren, Inslee, Booker, Harris and Julian Castro. Warren’s speech was remarkable, moving and impassioned, precise and value-based. Jay Inslee didn’t give a speech, but he did a long panel; he’s experienced and friendly and politically savvy; he definitely knows the levers of power. He reminds me a lot of Bill Clinton (minus the pecadillos), plus he is a dedicated climate change warrior. Harris’s speech was conversational, informal, empathetic and yet very sharp. She knew how to make her points well. (Yet she was focused on a small number of issues, rather than on larger issues from Warren’s). Booker sounded like a humble preacher willing to listen to everybody and describe life lessons and — very appealing. The issue of the day for all 3 speeches was tax breaks for low-income renters (horray!) None of them really paid attention to Trump (Warren made a few oblique references), but the main message seemed to be returning to the party’s roots (and the implicit admission that Clinton’s campaign didn’t do that enough). Maybe support for Medicare for All was implied — so the candidates didn’t need to mention the issue, but I was struck by its absence in all 3 speeches. Based on these speeches, I would say that Warren is head and shoulders above the rest in clarity of vision and passion. She does not sound professional or condescending at all — she even can play up her midWestern roots. She is definitely the best one to make the case against Trump. Over time, I have grown to respect Klobuchar’s fair-mindededness and respectful tone; when you hear her talk about election security and immigration, she comes off as very bipartisan and no-nonsense. In contrast, Warren (and Inslee and Gillibrand) sound very partisan.
Inslee is very aware of climate change issues and technology issues; his state did a net neutrality law and he tried unsuccessfully to pass a carbon tax. He understands climate change politics very well.
On the Republican side, one has to add Paul Ryan to the list, if only because he is highly skilled, experienced and a good speechmaker. Leaving office now allows him to distance himself from the Trump trainwreck while establishing a record of being a reliable conservative. It’s unclear whether he even wants to run in 2020 (although 2024 or 2028 sounds more tempting). I honestly don’t think Ryan wants to clean up after Trump’s messes.
The issues again boil down to whether Trump will run for re-election. My bet is still no (especially after the midterms, and when the Muller report starts to trickle into the public consciousness). One of the problems is that very few Republicans have distanced themselves from Trump (except Romney and all the people who ran against him in 2016), so Trump’s exit from national politics will leave a large vacuum on the conservative side.
The other issue — and I can’t believe I’m saying this — is that if the US enters another war, that could redound to Trump’s benefit in the short term — long enough to rally support for reelection. If such a foreign policy crisis of a non-economic nature arose, Klobuchar and maybe a manly man like Cory Booker or Adam Schiff might become more attractive as candidates.
September 29 2018 Update. Steve Bannon predicts that lawyer Michael Avenatti will run for president in 2020 and will be a formidable candidate. What an idiot! (Bannon seems to overvalue belligerence as a political quality). Beto O’Rourke is a name tossed about as a candidate. Not a chance! He’s correct on issues and very telegenic, but he’s a relative lightweight. Bloomberg hinted on Fahreed Zakaria’s GPS that he’s considering a run, but ultimately I think his age works against him.
It’s debatable whether experience in the Senate transfers to running for president, but it’s interesting that the 5 of the leading contenders are currently in the US Senate. From where things stand now, the midterms will be a Democratic blowout, and the Trump scandals have not really popped, so I guess we can assume that Trump will stay in the race — changing the dynamics somewhat.
The scene at the hearing — in which Kavanaugh was defending himself against allegations of sexual assault — has at once thrust Klobuchar into the national spotlight and reinforced what could be her central shortcoming as a 2020 contender for the presidency. In a party that by most accounts is searching for liberals and powerful personalities to counteract President Trump, Klobuchar has crafted a brand almost diametrically opposed to that. In many ways, Klobuchar’s running and winning in 2020 would defy conventional wisdom, just as Trump did in 2016.
Yet more and more, she is finding herself earning strong reviews from partisan crowds, often on the strength of understated moments such as Thursday’s and the idea that she is essentially the complete antithesis of Trump. Where he’s brash, extreme and exuding machismo, she’s subtle, bookish, bipartisan and a woman in a party that is increasingly nominating female candidates.
(The article goes on to say that what works as a Minnesota senator doesn’t work when you run for president, but that is condescending. My main complaint is about her lukewarm position on Medicare for All puts her out of sync with progressive politics.
November 12 2018 Update. Somebody on Predictit mentioned an Amy/Beto pairing for the 2020 race. Who can know at this stage, but the likability quotient of both people is staggering.. (It’s still an open question whether having Beto on the ticket would win Texas, but it could possibly make the difference in Florida). Since getting on board the Klobuchar train, I’ve been watching media appearances. Almost all are authentic and delightful and hilarious (see this and this). Will Bunch wrote a column making the case for Klobuchar and unearthed a beautiful tribute she made on the Senate floor to the musician Prince after he died.
November 16 2018 Update. It’s interesting that so many liberal columnists are pointing to Kamala Harris as a frontrunner. Of course, now it’s just a guessing game, but I just don’t see it. I don’t see any vision thing from her yet and no broad command of issues. Every candidate has strengths and deficiencies (or less strong qualities). For example, I think Warren would be an outstanding candidate even though she is viewed as divisive (unjustly, in my opinion, but there it is). Klobuchar is extremely likable and wonky, but maybe too nice? Harris is smart and tough, but not much depth? Gillebrand is smart and tough and argumentative, but maybe too New Yorky? These are all first impressions. Political campaigns are good at establishing to the public that no politician can be perfect and each has comparative shortcomings. That partly explains the cognitive dissonance of Trump supporters. They see his flaws, but have decided that Trump is so unique and colorful that they can live with his coarseness. Do supporters ever fall out of love with presidential candidates they have voted for? Rarely. Surely, some fell out of love with Clinton after the scandal, but that was after they reelected him. IBID for Nixon. Even people with high negatives (like George W. Bush and Reagan) seemed to get reelected easily. Final Note: I really hope that America Ferrara eventually transitions from acting to politics. Ferrara for President in 2036?
December 7 2018 Update. If you look at the schedule of Dem primaries , you see that New York is on Day 2 of the primary (1 day after Iowa) and Alabama/Massachusetts/California/North Carolina are on SuperTuesday (March 3). That means that New York is going to be a major player (and New York is an expensive media market). The early importance of traditionally liberal states means more emphasis on fundraising and coastal politics. Policy-wise, I think this is going to push climate change to the front of the agenda, and while health care is always important, it is somewhat less important in the big liberal states. It seems somewhat strange that some of the contentious states (Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) are later, so maybe Klobuchar’s Middle America liberalism will be somewhat disadvantaged.
June 10 2019 Update. What a fun and interesting list of candidates. At the moment Biden’s stay-above-the-fray strategy is working. Sanders and Warren are both in the same lane politically (but Warren is winning). Beto still stays in the limelight (and keeps getting invited onto talk shows) despite his inexperience. Egad, it’s such a beauty contest. I remain shocked that Inslee has not gotten a lot of traction even though climate change has suddenly become a front burner issue. As capable as Buttigieg is, it’s not his turn though he makes the race a lot more interesting and injects a bit of religious sensibility. As women start to drop out (I’m looking at you, Williamson, Gabbard and Gillibrand), support for the other female candidates will solidify. Both Klobuchar and Harris will gain when the Biden bubble finally deflates and women start to make up their mind. Punditry so far has downplayed the importance of gender in this primary. It has also ignored candidates with DEPTH; by that, I mean, having a motive more than professional vanity, not focusing too much on a single issue and capable of appealing to the nation rather than one region of the nation. Among those having this depth are Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, Inslee and possibly Biden and Harris (though Klobuchar and Inslee are currently regional — especially Inslee). Another factor is that early voting on Super Tuesday will overlap considerably with primaries in early states. That will help candidates from larger states like CA and TX. A cursory look at candidate websites shows that the best websites (so far) are 1) Bernie Sanders, 2)Joe Biden, 3)Kamala Harris, 4)Amy Klobuchar. Special mention goes to Jay Inslee whose website contains 5 separate climate change proposals. Impressive.
August 9, 2019 Update. Boy this primary has been exciting, and it’s only started!
First, it’s interesting how Trump’s actions has been shaping the primary. It has made immigration a central issue — and increased the focus on temperament.
Second, I am shocked and disappointed to see that many seasoned candidates have barely made the third tier. Klobuchar, Inslee, Castro all have made their marks, but seem unlikely to make any significant headway in the race. That’s a shame because Inslee has an incredible record, and so does Klobuchar. Also, every time Klobuchar speaks publicly on foreign policy, I think, this woman is incredible! I wish we had different candidates in the first and second tier, but here we are.
Third, it’s interesting how qualifying for debates has shaped the early campaign. These events are exercises in pugilism; it’s probably interesting as much as it reveals which policies and talking points are being relied upon most.
Fourth, I look at polls and see indications that Trump still has a shot (is the electorate smoking crack or what?). Also, I see a roar against the big liberals. (Do they realize that 20% of Texans don’t have health insurance?) This status quo bias on health care seems destined to let that continue for quite a while. Thankfully, there seems to be acknowledgment that action on climate change needs to be accelerated.
Fifth, as a result of Steyer’s late entrance to the race, I am seeing FB ads EVERY time I open FB — Steyer is spending a lot of money to attract small donors. He is an extremely impressive candidate — smart, articulate, informed — and runs an effective lobbying group, but I’m afraid USA doesn’t really need another smart billionaire (not him, not Bloomberg, etc) to run the country. The billionaire-as-savior was interesting as an idea when Perot emerged, but maybe the problem today is that certain privileged people have gigantic megaphones in our society.
Fifth, I am watching Texas polls closely for hints that it might be in play. I guess Chuck Kuffner and Nate Silver have better insight than I do. But a recent Emerson poll shows both Biden and Sanders beating Trump in a head to head poll of Texas registered voters, (and a total of 6 Dem candidates at the margin of error). It’s quite possible that Beto or Castro might fill a VP slot to increase that probability.
I’m beginning to see obvious picks for a Dem cabinet: Inslee for EPA, Harris for DOJ, Gabbard for VA, O’Rourke/Castro for INS. I think Klobuchar would also be great for Dept of State or DOJ. Bullock for Interior, Ryan for Labor, and certainly places can be found for Booker, Buttigieg, etc.
December 10, 2019 Update. In Houston all I see on TV are ads for woman’s cologne and Michael Bloomberg. I think his strategy is capture Texas, New York, California and Florida, with Texas being an important part. At the last part of November, I felt 100% sure that Nikki Haley and John Kasich would enter the primary — in anticipation of the impeachment tarnishing the GOP brand. Significantly this did not happen.
Only Chumps with a Rump vote for Trump.
He will pump this country into a slump.
Don’t make me a grump.
Don’t be a lump.
If you thump for Trump,
You might as well jump into a dump!
Let’s get over this mad callithump
and dump this Trump.
He’s no Forrest Gump.
He’s just a mean-spirited clump
of hypocrisy and plump
who will gladly gazump
any voters not paying attention.
We don’t need a chump to pump
our brains with harrumps.
Let’s not flump into a sump of disdain
Or treat every non-beauty-queen as a frump
Or be the guy who’s always yelling at the ump.
A little bit of determination
is all one needs to get over this hump called Trump.
Decades later, books will recall the time
that democracy survived a slight bump
and the towering tree of haughtiness
was quickly leveled to a stump.
(By Robert Nagle, ex-mugwump, with the help of several online rhyming dictionaries! )
Recently I was watching “Mud,” a well done movie about the South. It featured quirky characters, regional color, dangerous problems and loss of innocence. Good old-fashioned Americana. On an isolated island, two teenage boys stumble upon a stranger who turns out to be a fugitive. But the stranger is not really a bad guy, just someone wounded by romantic delusions. The details of this stranger’s alleged crime are muddled by the fact that the man the stranger killed probably deserved to die anyway and the bounty hunters now chasing the stranger down are probably bad guys too. Suddenly the boys realize that the issues aren’t so black and white.
All in all, a fine movie, and I enjoyed it.
But the ending really botched things. I don’t think I’m spoiling things too much to say that there’s a gun-induced bloodbath at the climax. Sigh. Everything was going so well up to that point. I expected the end to have some kind of showdown, but I didn’t expect it to be as extreme as the movie portrayed it. I don’t watch violent movies often (not even movies with the cartoon kind), but when I do, I find myself asking, “Would this movie or TV show have still worked with only 50% of the gunshots?” Actually, a single bullet is enough to make a tragedy. I once was robbed at gunpoint, and I remember thinking that this idiot who was holding me up had only to fire one bullet to change the nature of the crime.
In this movie, guns precipitate the conflict, aggravate the conflict and end the conflict (in a ridiculously violent way). Guns in movies leak bullets as promiscuously as tears.
I shoot people; therefore I am achieving justice. Justice is the end, and guns are the primary way to achieve this end (and so justice without the presence of guns must be flimsy and worthless). Guns fire up the audience’s emotions; guns coerce one person’s conception of justice; never mind that there is always the risk of blowback or friendly fire losses. Guns elevate subjective wishy-washy feelings to the exclusion of everything else; it doesn’t matter if the person standing before me is actually a threat. What matters is that I feel it’s a threat. Where I live, it’s reasonably certain that a police officer would arrive at my car within 5-10 minutes of a 911 phone call. Yet, for the gun-anxious Texan, that is simply inadequate. Many Texans believe themselves to be seconds away from annihilation. Quite apart from the policy question, I don’t see how Houstonians can live with that constant kind of stress. How on earth do paranoid gun-owning people have the mental composure to let themselves take the occasional nap?
I don’t deny that using guns has a certain romanticism to it, the romanticism of desiccated limbs, punctured internal organs and collapsed breaths. There is virtually no stigma associated with firing a gun because society has generally accepted that individuals who feel threatened will occasionally require the right to extinguish the life of another. Never mind that firing a gun at someone is usually a serious felony – the threat of unseen marauders is so real-seeming that some people cannot imagine life without it. Many of my friends have guns — not for any practical reason, but just the vague emotional sense that “I want it to be there when I really need it.”
In movie reality, the main adrenalin pusher seems to be guns and people who possess them and threaten you. You have the cops and robbers of course, but of course the true protagonist is the cache of guns. Guns remain the true heroes; humans are simply pawns of the inevitable storms of violence.
Nonlethal weapons like tasers might be an alternative – except it actually involves touching the perpetrator. That of course is absurd. Americans overwhelmingly prefer to shoot humans as they shoot photographs – far away enough to take in the spectacular view. Not only do Americans enjoy the thrill of being able to point at objects and fire, they also revel in the loud sounds of shots and agonized cries as body parts are ripped apart. If I were to suggest a nonlethal alternative, I would devise some kind of melodramatic vomit spray — accompanied by noisy pop pop pops of firecrackers (to notify and impress the neighbors).
The problem with gun ownership (in movies or life) is that it never really partakes of consequences. We never read of hospital costs or orphaned parents or the constant guilt that snuffing the life of another inevitably entails. We never speak of the psychological intimidation or the accidental casualties (be it suicide or simply the innocent result of kids playing around with guns they shouldn’t be handling).
The Hilarity of Law Enforcement
Today I watched a clever and hilarious movie “The Heat” which sticks to the “police buddy” formula, but with female buddies out to nab an evil drug lord. Predictable plot, punchy dialogue and stupid male cops getting in the way. Unsurprisingly there are gun battles and constant waving around of guns.
The first problem I have of course is plausibility. Do cops and FBI agents wave their guns around so often on a typical workday? Last I read, FBI spends most of their time investigating white collar crime, so they probably just spend most of their time looking at a computer screen and interviewing people. In one funny scene, the first female cop showing off to the second her private weapon cache which she stores in the refrigerator.
I guess I accept the premise that female cops would find showing off one’s gun arsenal to a partner to be a bonding experience. In movies, the primary determinant in who prevails in which side has the best cache of guns. But wait — as soon as you let your guard down, another man with a gun has snuck up behind you — defeating your short-lived tactical advantage.
Police in these movies are always grasping their guns — stumbling into confrontations which seem to be won or lost by which side has the biggest firepower. Nobody likes violence in movies; of course not. But dangerous criminals in movies always seem to be armed and making threats; it is inconceivable that a person with a gun could be shopping for groceries or waiting. Conversely movie expectations dictate that bad guys will all have guns and be willing to use one as cold-heartedly as possible.
When apprehending dangerous criminals, I suspect the hardest part will not be winning the gunfight but simply figuring out the perpetrator’s whereabouts and the optimal time to confront him. Police officers, I suspect, are trained very well on these things. A gun might be helpful in establishing authority initially, but it is not the key element. If the criminal is rational, he will give up when faced with an officer who has both initiative and backup. If the criminal is not-rational, then maybe the criminal would start firing (assuming that his gun is within arm’s reach). But then a real-life police officer probably selected a context for confrontation to minimize this possibility.
Movie criminals are more typically portrayed as loud and confrontational, rarely worrying about being caught and always ready to use their guns. Conveniently, in these movies, a villain’s henchman have a tendency to magically appear behind anyone who tries to arrest the villian. But real criminals probably worry a lot about being caught. They try hard to blend in with normal life. They go to the supermarket, buy gas, eat at a restaurant, go to the concert or sports game. These are public outings where there they can easily be surrounded and overcome. So there really isn’t a need for police officers to go creeping around empty warehouses with guns in hand. All the police officer needs to do is to wait for the criminal to pump his gas. ****
Portraying movie criminals unrealistically also means that you portray police unrealistically as well. Everyone is on hair-trigger alert; even the slightest sound causes movie police to grab their guns. For the viewer, the inevitable gun battle becomes a source of suspense and indeed, the climax of the movie; guns become the building blocks for great dramas filled with great men. And great man are those brave enough to use deadly force to stop the violent rampage of lawless people. In other words, because bad guys use guns to commit their crimes, good guys must use guns to commit their good deeds.
Who is the good guy?
When we watch movies laced with violence, we are left thanking goodness that real life is not so violent — never pausing to wonder whether the criminals in real life are really like that. One underlying theme in these violence-prone movies is that — heck, some days you just can’t avoid shooting up a few people. Drats that the criminals have to die — obviously! — but killings in movies are a shortcut for restoring the moral balance to the world — even if our gun-toting hero does it in the heat of the moment or without legal sanction. As long as this balance is restored in the movie, the viewer expects that the sympathetic protagonist will win some kind of reprieve. Sure, the good gun-toting protagonist may eventually have to face the wrath of the law, but a good person’s good motives will be an exonerating factor.
Over the years I’ve grown intolerant about narratives which attempt to legitimate the use of deadly force against people who you believe have wronged you. These cinematic narratives can seem to quench your emotional desire for justice, but then, in the realm of true crime, we are presented with more ambiguous events. The man in the movie theatre was threatening me….or maybe he was just throwing popcorn. The cops barge into a house and shoot dead a drug dealer who fires at them … or is the man an armed and respected veteran who kept the safety lock on? A man follows a teenager around believing him to be a criminal and fires at him at close range when the teen resists. Or is the teenager just picking up candy at the store and scared by a stalker? Sometimes it’s hard to tell in real life who is the bad guy and who is the good guy. In retrospect, the violent response against these “bad guys” never was so clear. Instead we have weeping mothers, astronomical medical bills, people in shock and lives ruined. I genuinely feel sorry for George Zimmerman for killing innocent teenager Trayvon Martin. In Zimmerman’s limited and almost paranoid vision of the world, teenagers who loiter pose a threat, so it’s best to have your gun ready. Although eventually acquitted because of Florida’s lax gun laws, Zimmerman has to pay a price of personal guilt for the rest of his life. Similarly, certain gun owners must feel the guilt of the deaths or suicides committed by family members who used the gun without permission. Police officers must live with the guilt of killing bystanders or even the perpetrator who nonetheless didn’t deserve to die but was the victim of an officer’s faulty calculation.
Some people may feel genuinely threatened by the world around them. Sometimes a specific individual may know of a potential threat by a specific person, and for the short term at least, it might make sense to keep a gun. But it does not follow that owning a gun makes that individual safer. Even law-abiding and otherwise rational gun owners have unrealistic expectations about whether gun ownership reduces crime and threats. They trust their crappy intuition, and that is the tragedy. Once you buy a gun, you have invested in a gun’s talismanic ability to ward off threats. Also, the act of buying or owning a gun is long-term. Few people buy a gun, keep it for a few years and then get rid of it. Like getting married and being Christian, owning a gun is a long term commitment. To actually reap the safety advantage, you always need to keep the gun within reach. You not only need to be on the lookout for crime-fighting situations, you always need to keep an eye out for your gun — must not lose it! Keeping that gun around exerts a steady burden on the psychic life of a person. Perhaps for actual crime victims, it is reassuring to have some weapon around while recovering from a recent trauma. But why not just take a pill instead?
Guns vs. Swimming Pools
A common refrain from enthuasiastic gun owners is that swimming pools kill more kids each year than guns do; But because it is ludicrous for someone to suggest abolishing swimming pools, it is also ludicrous to abolish guns.
I’m afraid it misses the point. Nobody is suggesting abolishing anything. Instead, I ask: are you protecting your kids better by owning a gun or by not owning a gun? While I’m at it, I might also wonder aloud whether a parent protects a child better by having a backyard swimming pool than by not having one?(See Note at bottom **)
Victims ages 15 to 19 made up 84% of the children brought to the hospital with gunshot wounds, and two-thirds of those injuries were attributed to assault. Among these older children, roughly 24% of the cases were considered unintentional. Suicide attempts accounted for 239 of 4,143 of those firearm-related hospitalizations.
Among younger children, accidental firearm injuries were most common. Of the 378 children under 10 brought to the hospital in connection with a firearm injury, roughly three-quarters were considered victims of an accidental or unintended shooting. Thirty-one children younger than 5 and 47 ages 5 to 9 were injured in gun-related assaults in 2009.
Among Latino youths, firearm-related injuries were three times higher than among white children, the data show. And African American girls were more than six times as likely as their white counterparts to be injured by gunfire.
Unfortunately this raw data doesn’t tell us much. Who is assaulting children and teens? Where are children being assaulted? My guess it that they are being assaulted on the way home from school or at social outings — certainly not at home, where a gun may safely be kept. Just as avoiding swimming pools is a way to avoid being drowned, teens have some ability to limit risk by staying away from dangerous places. But children are not going to stop swimming, and we can’t expect teens to avoid all social situations where they could be assaulted. But would gun ownership protect teens? If these assaults happen outside their residence, having a gun at home won’t matter. Should teenagers be allowed to keep guns? Many parents would say that teens can’t be relied upon to use guns effectively or responsibly. Teenagers are ruled by emotions and hormones; they blow things out of proportion and assert themselves too much. Also, they have more time than adults to loiter and socialize. Giving more guns to minors seems a recipe for certain disaster; is it desirable for a parent or a society to take steps to limit teenager’s access to guns? Does possession of a gun in the house make it easier for irresponsible teens to use them?
Some teenagers are assaulted. That is a sad part of growing up. Teens start out feeling invulnerable and then they realize how powerless they really are. This realization is powerful (and traumatic!) and yet essential for mental and emotional growth. What is the best way for teenagers to make this realization? Is it by giving them a gun to carry around or teaching them to avoid risky situations and people?
The Great Thing about Being a Chicken
The great thing about being a chicken is that people laugh at you and maybe pick on you — but rarely kill you — especially if you run away fast enough. Give a teenager a gun and then you provide him with a combination of security and power — better reason to stick around and fight. Fighting — that’s what the real tough guys do — and that’s how you resist bullies, but it’s also very risky. Taking the law into your own hands carries the risk that after later people will fail to understand or appreciate why you felt compelled to respond with deadly force.
To understand the value of guns, you need to understand the criminal mind. The criminal typically wants the transgression to be as quick and smooth a transaction as possible. Criminals mostly want to dominate the situation to get what they want and get the hell out of there. Some criminals have defective (and even sadistic) personalities, but for the most part shooting someone messes up the criminal transaction. The criminal doesn’t want his actions to make the evening news, and shooting someone virtually assures it. Criminals may forget these concerns in the heat of the moment, but the individual crime victim needs to weigh the potential risks of assuming the worst in the criminal vs. the risks of leaving the criminal no choice but to use deadly force. It sounds superficially appealing to say you want to “prepare for the worst,” but nobody can plan for everything. Sometimes, in fact, overpreparing fuels a counterproductive paranoia.
Watching the movie Boyz ‘n the Hood, I am reminded of how guns can be used in social situations for illicit purposes. These situations are about dominance — not merely committing a crime. The two gangs in Boyz n the Hood weren’t killing one another because they were robbing people. They were just trying to intimidate. How do you intimidate? With guns. The proposed response to gun threats — to bring your own gun — doesn’t address whether this strategy actually works. Will the presence of another gun lead to a friendly stalemate? Or will it aggravate tensions and cause one side to make a pre-emptive move? With Boyz in the Hood gang violence, whipping out a gun to respond to a threat doesn’t eliminate the threat; it merely continues the cycle of violence and intimidation. The central theme of the movie (“At what point do you walk away?”) depends primarily on the level of economic and social desperation. The protagonist can walk away because he has something to live for — a good home life, economic opportunity, a general optimism — while the unemployed brother Dough Boy lacks the social anchors to restrain his desire for retribution.
But Boyz n the Hood presents false choices here. If police are always ruthless and incompetent and if teenagers are unwilling to go to them, of course gun-equipped young people will take the law into their own hands. But even in the Compton ghettoes, it seems unlikely that angry teenagers would spurn police if they could identify the people who committed the blow-by shooting. Perhaps these witnesses have a legitimate fear of retribution or legitimately believe that the police are ineffectual. But all police departments have anonymous tip hotlines. It just doesn’t make sense to me that in gang-related violence, the victimized gang wouldn’t let the police do their thing if there is plenty of evidence to convict somebody.
Perhaps I am naive. Or perhaps movies are just dramatized revenge fantasies (for which police are just an unfortunate prop). All this is fine, but how does it influence the individual’s decision to own or use a gun? Movies evince a self-justifying mythology for buying and using a gun. Of course our mundane lives aren’t replete with armed threats (or pretty female sidekicks). Crime is less ostentatious; it may pounce on you when you least expect it — and then it’s gone before you knew what hit you. Most of the time it is completely invisible – siphoning money from your bank accounts, stealing your car when you’re asleep, grabbing your purse when you’re not looking. For those things guns are completely useless. People who buy guns entertain grand notions of being able to fight back, but after it becomes clear it is mostly useless for doing that, it begins to dawn on the gun owner that the only things guns are good for are threatening family members and blowing one’s own brains out.
FBI and CDC data on people who used a firearm to kill themselves or to kill a felon (Olga Khazan )
To Be Raped or Not to be Raped
I remain surprised at how many liberal-minded females in Texas nonetheless own guns. Often they are single and concerned about their personal safety. By that, I mean they worry about being raped. A rape scenario seems to be a clear case where a brandishing of a gun would seem to be a legitimate use of force. Sexual violence is terrifying to contemplate — with one of the worst parts being this feeling of helplessness while it takes place.
But let’s consider this topic for a moment — despite the unpleasantness.
Let’s make a list of rape scenarios involving strangers: being jumped on in a park, in a parking lot, in one’s own apartment, while walking home, being carjacked, in one’s dorm. Try to imagine how a gun might be used to avert these scenarios. [See end note] In many of these cases, the stranger has jumped you and caught you by surprise. Would you really have enough time and composure to gather a weapon to scare off the perpetrator off? Maybe if you were taking a long walk home and were gripping your gun tightly all the while, it might be effective (but so would mace). Suppose somebody were barging in on you, assuming you had 10-15 seconds to react, owning a gun might make a difference. But how many rape scenarios give you that much time?
But what if there were two perpetrators? That decreases even further the likelihood that your gun could ward off an attack. What if one perpetrator already had a gun? If you owned a gun too, that might even up the score, but how do we know that this will bring a stalemate and not an escalation of violence? I can think of scenarios where having a gun would actually avert a rape, but I can think of many more stranger scenarios where the gun is inaccessible or improperly used or just not an effective response. It’s true that when you hold a gun in your hand, for a few moments at least guns can make you feel invulnerable to any attacker. But it is not a permanent or lasting solution.
Up to now we have been talking about rapists who are strangers. But what about the familiar rapist — the angry spouse or ex, the frat boy? This constitutes about 2/3 of all rapes The situations where these might take place would be ones where one might normally not have a gun. For many of these situations having a gun is unlikely to help, and in fact, batterers have shown a tendency to own more guns than non-batterers. Finally, there are many risk avoidance strategies you can take that can be just as effective if not more. This doesn’t prevent every single scenario, and I’m not suggesting that guns are bad for every person in every scenario. But getting a gun just doesn’t seem to make anybody’s Top 10 list of risk mitigation strategies.
Better than Guns: Ordinary Prudent Measures
A secret: up until recently I have never locked my doors in my apartment when I am at home. I sometimes would forget my car doors too. It seemed silly or pointless. Since writing this essay, I have changed my mind. Many burglaries occur in late morning, and that typically is when I am home. I wouldn’t want anybody barging accidentally into my house and feeling compelled to dominate the confrontation. Many burglars knock on the door before they break into your house. A locked door won’t prevent all wrongdoing, but it poses an initial obstacle — and often that is enough.
When I was robbed at gunpoint a few years ago, I realized that I was living in a dangerous apartment complex and wouldn’t be able to move away soon. So I had to cope with the risk. I avoided taking out the trash late at night. I minimized driving at night, and I was much more aware of my surroundings on the nights I arrived home late. It’s true that I still had to walk my dog — and that was a risk, but often when you are walking on familiar territory you can anticipate risk and even see it ahead of you.
I’m not saying that I avoid strangers, but I avoid situations with strangers where I am isolated and don’t have the ability to extricate myself easily. All of these things sound so easy and obvious; why not just do it? These measures can’t work miracles, but they are relatively cheap and pain-free and don’t impose unnecessary risks. An individual could also resort to countermeasures ranging from cheap to very expensive: security systems, nonlethal weapons and noisemakers. If you are genuinely interested in reducing risk (instead of simply asserting power), you would probably find that defensive nonlethal countermeasures are cheaper, more effective and offer more peace of mind.
Should you own a gun? In some few cases, the answer to that question of wisdom is probably yes.
But most of the time, gun owners are frightening themselves irrationally. They have conjured in their own imaginations a much more terrifying environment than genuinely exists — and they are living a fantasy about the security their guns will bestow. And to the extent that they are right — to the extent that the American environment is indeed more dangerous than the Australian or Canadian or German or French environment — the dangers gun owners face are traceable to the prevalence of the very guns from which they so tragically mistakenly expect to gain safety.
What force on earth could convince Americans that down is up? The most powerful force of all: television.
TV news — and especially local TV news — is dominated by news of violent crime, the more spectacular and murderous the better. TV news creates a false picture of a country under attack by rampaging criminals, and especially nonwhite criminals. The people who watch the most TV news, Americans older than 50, also happen to be the group most likely to own a gun.
Only one-fifth of young Americans own a gun; one-third of over-50 Americans do. Republicans are twice as likely to own a gun as Democrats. Maybe not so coincidentally, Republicans are more likely to watch the scariest news channel of them all: Fox. Whites are twice as likely to own a gun as nonwhites…
Proponents of gun control are baffled that horrific massacres such as the one in Aurora, Colorado, do not lead to stricter gun control. They have their causation backward.
The more terrifyingly criminal the world looks, the more ineffective law enforcement seems, the more Americans demand the right to deadly weapons with which to defend themselves. It is local TV programming directors, not the National Rifle Association, who are tirelessly persuading Americans that they need to strap a gun to their legs before heading to the mall.
And what will change those attitudes is not more atrocity stories, but instead the reassuring truth: The United States is safe and getting safer, safer than ever before in its history.
The police can protect you, and will, and do. And a gun in the house is not a guarantee of personal security — it is instead a standing invitation to family tragedy. The cold dead hands from which they pry the gun are very unlikely to be the hands of a heroic minuteman defending home and hearth against intruders. They are much more likely to be the hands of a troubled adolescent or a clumsy child.
Amen to everything Frum says here, but I have to wonder if the condensed and visually-oriented format of local news is the only thing contributing to this overemphasis of grotesque crime. Also, TV and movie depictions of crimes and violence may be more fantasy than reality, but we have to ask ourselves why guns-and-violence seems to be such a successful and profitable Hollywood formula. Instead of ritualistic and cathartic bloodletting onscreen, what ever happened to movies depicting an ordinary American’s hopes and dreams?
I can’t point to any unique historical trend here — except that perhaps the general magnitude of Hollywood violence tends to track the trend towards greater budgets. Shoot-em-up videos have been popular from the very beginning; at the same time murder rates and rapes have trended downward as porn and violent movies proliferate. Sticking with onscreen violence for a moment, perhaps formula movies and shows just have more sex and violence than “ordinary” movies and shows. Maybe when we bemoan too much sex and violence on TV we are simply bemoaning the increase of cookie-cutter cultural products.
Social forces may be indirectly contributing to the problem. In America, people are less likely to know their neighbors, more likely to be single and less likely to have an extended network of friends and family nearby. Maybe it’s just that cities contain more people and hence more strangers, contributing to this unease. Cars may aggravate this situation, enabling cities to be more spread out, making an individual’s “neighborhood” encompass a wider swath of people than in previous times. Perhaps the visible and vocal presence of (potentially threatening) gun-owners contribute to this uneasy need to “keep up with the Joneses.” Or perhaps the advancing power and reach of mass media make it easier for ordinary people to hear about grisly crimes several time zones away. Decades ago, people bought guns to protect themselves from crazy people in the neighborhood, but now perhaps they do it to protect themselves from the crazy axe-murderer in Florida (who — let’s face it — could simply hop in a car, drive 70 mph and be on our doorsteps within 24 hours).
Perhaps the real enemy is not guns but the federal highway system.
**One critic pointed out the difference here. Kids usually spend much longer amounts of time at the swimming pool than they do handling guns. You can be sure that if kids spent as much time handling guns as they did swimming, the casualty numbers would be different.
*** Rereading my essay, I realize that I have forgotten a very common scenario: being inside your home in the middle of the night and using a gun to prevent someone from entering the front door. I admit that I had not appreciated the risk of opening the door late at night or even engaging with someone knocking on the door through a chain lock. In that scenario, you are aware of the risk and have reasonable control over admittance. You are also wide awake and aware of the stranger. It actually can be comforting to know that a gun (or at least the brandishing of one) can dissuade a known aggressor. This, I concede. But so can a locked door — which even if it doesn’t deter in all cases, can still prevent many surprise intrusions. But ultimately an aggressor can bring a gun and cancel your advantage somewhat (forcing you into the unenviable position of having to be the first to fire). Ultimately, there will always be periods where you put your guard down or make yourself vulnerable; perhaps a gun or a door lock will reduce these periods, and contribute to a sense of personal security. On the other hand, unless you leave the gun by the door, you will never feel truly safe. When are you most vulnerable? Probably when you are away from home or transitioning from work to home or home to shopping parking lot. Are you comfortable carrying the gun in these situations? How would you respond if you are carrying grocery bags from your car? What about putting the trash out? What about being in a strange parking lot at night? Perhaps access to guns might help in these situations, but my guess is that it is mostly useless. When I was robbed at gunpoint a few years ago, I was carrying groceries from my car in the parking lot. I was caught totally offguard by two punks. I was in a crime-prone neighborhood, My solution in that case was to avoid walking to and from car after 9:00 PM and to avoid taking out the trash after hours. When I needed to do so, I took a more careful inventory of my surroundings before moving.
**** After having pondered this sentence a good bit, I’ve decided that pumping one’s gas is not the most opportune time to confront a criminal (after all gasoline is potentially deadly, and cars are both useful for escape and running over people). After the criminal has left his car and started walking to the store, parking lots seem to be great places to arrest people; not many innocent bystanders, and lots of places for them to duck and hide. Indeed, the best scenario seems to be after the criminal has paid for his groceries and is pushing his cart towards his car. CCTV can identify and track suspects inside the supermarket; a police officer can wait at the checkout posing as a security guard, and outdoor police can provide support and backup.
In September 2008 I was visiting distant relatives in Ireland. The topic of conversation was “Sarah Palin.” All the Irish people at the table were genuinely worried about her. “We can’t afford to have another Bush Administration — that affects many people not just in America. This Sarah Palin seems formidable. Why on earth didn’t Obama pick Hilary Clinton to be vice-president?”
I had to smile at this reaction. Obviously, as an American I saw things from a different perspective. I got to see how insiders viewed McCain/Palin and Obama. I knew that many Americans had considerable enthusiasm about Obama, and many people were sick of a Republican in the White House. I knew that McCain didn’t generate as much enthusiasm, didn’t accept federal election funds, had several out-of-touch scandals and had several mishaps. No matter how great Palin was, (and I knew that she was not by that time), these were insurmountable obstacles.
I had that same sort of feeling after Romney nominated Paul Ryan as his running mate. Romney was smart and capable, but he was very domineering in political debates; he also had the arrogance that came with wealth. During the primary to prove his conservative mettle Romney took on some pretty hardline positions, and I knew that would come back to bite him. Paul Ryan has always seemed to be a dishonest politician, but in TV appearances, he seemed sincere and focused (two very good qualities for a presidential ticket). Tactically it made sense to pick him, but it ended up making Romney and Ryan seem out of touch with mainstream America. Even after that first presidential debate fiasco, I knew that demographic trends favored Obama; it wasn’t that Obama won the election, but that Republicans lost it spectacularly.
I realize that it’s too soon to talk about 2016, and I find the premature talk of it to be amusing. I don’t know who will win or who will be nominated, but I know who will NOT be nominated.
Ted Cruz. Sure, he’s a rising star, but he has irritated many people inside his party and out. That’s not how presidents get started. He may get campaign contributions (and often this kind of money goes to show support of a position rather than an individual), but he will burn out pretty quickly. I think his positions are too extreme for the country, but I don’t even think that will matter.
Rick Perry. He’s good at raising money and politicking (and I mean that in the most cynical way) But he has bungled so many things in Texas (I mean major scandals), really doesn’t understand national issues and really has not faced a major challenger in Texas. He’s also a lousy debater and he refused Medicaid funding. That might play well in Texas, but almost nowhere else.
Hilary Clinton. Too old, and Americans have tired of the Clinton brand by now.
Elizabeth Warren. I love Ms. Warren’s spunk and advocacy, but she is too old and doesn’t really have a track record as a politician. Also, although she has the gift of gab and good political instincts, you can’t get to know the American political landscape by teaching at Harvard.
Joe Biden, Howard Dean, Kathleen Sebelius. Too old.
Rick Santorum. Too ideological.
Kirsten Gillibrand. Probably a good candidate, but too young and if Cuomo were to run against her, he would probably win (Gillibrand worked for him at HUD).
Mike Huckabee/Sarah Palin/Pete King/Jan Brewer/John Bolton. Too strange, even for Republicans.
Chris Christie. Although his numbers look good now from the recent jerryrigged election and he polls well with the Bubba vote, he is too abrasive, doesn’t really show a mastery of policy and the fact that Romney didn’t want him in 2012 speaks a lot.
Bobby Jindal. Probably a competent and articulate Republican, but Louisiana is a puny political base to start from, and Jindal is too young. On the fence though; Jindal has made it a point to get involved in national issues, so I wouldn’t count him out yet. But Louisiana is too small a pond to test your political mettle (at least with a state like Maryland, you are dealing with DC and more national media)
Rand Paul. He has brand name, youth and cachet with the Tea Party. He also has the tendency to say crazy things and get involved in all kinds of minor scandals. I think his positions are really too crazy even for Republicans. Still, he’s the nicer version of “Ted Cruz” with more heart and passion for social issues. But as his policies become better known, he (like Paul Ryan) may find his popularity declines.
Scott Walker. Occasionally a politician who stirs national attention for being intractable is rewarded politically (especially if he survives intact), but in this case he will serve as a lightning rod for hostility (just like Rick Perry). Although he survived a recall challenge, the visuals of having been so vigorously opposed by students, teachers and labor unions should help him in the primary, but not in the national election. I could be wrong on this, and certainly he is not the laughing stock like Perry. Reagan had enemies too, but he also had a Hollywood background and lots of charisma, something Walker doesn’t have the benefit of. Ultimately the key litmus test for whether a Republican can win a general election is whether you accepted Medicaid expansion. Opposing the expansion wins you points in the primary, but not in the general election (unless Obamacare has major setbacks, which I do not expect).
This still leaves a lot of people: Andrew Cuomo, John Kasich, Martin O’Malley, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan. Aha, I see no woman on my list. As I said, Warren would be my top choice if she ran, but she doesn’t really have a deep command on policy issues outside of banking and finance.
I am predicting that Obamacare will not be a train wreck and that governors who blocked it for their state will face inherent difficulties winning the general election. That leaves two Republican governors who accepted expansion (Bush and Kasich) and senators who can oppose it rhetorically but never had to block it in that person’s own state. That gives Marco Rubio a built in advantage.
On the Democrat side, I would love to see candidates make one or two issues their own (rather than just pointing to executive skills as governor). We may say that Ron Paul or Bill Bradley or Dennis Kucinich had very small chances of winning, but they had major platform differences with the leading candidate. I would love to see a candidate seize on climate change as an issue. Maybe a top tier candidate won’t do this (Cuomo?) but a second tier candidate probably would, and frankly, none of the potential Democrat candidates have treated climate change as anything more than just another issue. I would love to see an outsider like Sheldon Whitehouse, Alan Grayson or Bob Inglis run for president, but that’s what the Green Party is for.
Postscript: I should add that I don’t think I’m demonstrating “ageism” by saying that candidates are too old. It’s just that it has to do with energy level, “passion” and the ability to campaign tirelessly for 2 presidential campaigns. I suppose a 70 year old with a well-managed schedule could do these things (the Senators seem to have no problems, and a lot of them are 70 and older). What really gets you though is all the travelling. I think Hilary and Elizabeth Warren could manage it, but barely. Both woman (and especially Hilary) are supremely qualified and competent. But asking them to campaign in 50 states and then to jaunt to Europe and Asia every two or three months seems to be torture for anyone (much less a person over 65).
Postscript 2. If pressed to predict, I would say Martin O’Malley for Democrats and Marco Rubio for Republicans.
Postscript 3 (one year later in November 2014). Looks like Rubio totally misread climate politics, giving me the impression that he’s not really ready for the national scene. Cuomo and O’Malley haven’t seen to have risen in prominence, and Rand Paul seems to be winning the “Likable Tea Party candidate” race. I think Kasich, Bush, Walker and Paul would be 4 strong Republican contenders with moderate policies, crossover appeal and no real skeletons (well, except Scott Walker). I would love to see Clinton win as president (and the liberal agenda needs her to succeed), but a Republican with a fresh face and a moderate climate change policy could pose a strong opposition. Despite the fact that the 2016 Senate races are tilting Democrat, it seems that the Republican presidential candidates have executive experience.
Postscript 4 (July 2015). There are really only 6 Republican Candidates in this race. Walker, Bush, Kasich, Cruz, Perry and Rubio. Out of those, I would knock out Cruz (too extreme to be electable), Rubio (lacking in political leadership though a great VP pick) and Perry (lots of baggage and unexpectedly poor in fund-raising). That leaves three candidates: Walker, Bush, Kasich, each with their own minuses: Scott Walker (might be too extreme), Bush (too lightweight and reminds people of his brother) and Kasich (people don’t know or remember him). Of course, Bush has already won the “money primary” (His campaign is raising $760,000 PER DAY). With a fundraising record like that, is it any wonder that Republican candidates oppose entitlements for the mooching class?
Looking back at how things turned out (and keep in mind that the race doesn’t really begin until the first debate), I didn’t expect that Bush would lead would have so much money. Also I didn’t expect that climate change was actually going to be a front-burner issue (horray!) or that the nepotism issue of Bush would be offset by Hilary, so now we’re even steven. I still think Kasich has a chance, but how on earth will he overcome the disadvantage in fund-raising?
Postscript 5 (October 2015). Well, Hilary Clinton seems to be the most viable candidate on the Dem side. The GOP side has been too weird for words. Walker is out, Trump and Carson are near the top, the superficially impressive (but ultimately unelectable) Carly Fiorina is still in the race, and a lot of Republicans who have no chance of winning are still in the race for vanity reasons. I still think we’re going to end up with Bush, Rubio and Kasich and one of the 3 extremist populist candidate (i.e., Trump, Cruz, Carson). I think the question boils down to whether the GOP voter wants a candidate who is “authentic” (but not politically correct) or “politically savvy.” (By the way, I would put Clinton into the “politically savvy” camp). So far the “authentic” voices have been dominating the debate and few of them have paid any political price for their untoward words. I find it interesting that the GOP really hasn’t tried to co-opt the climate change issue — one might expect politicians from Florida to be attuned to polls on the subject. Ultimately the GOP message depends on the voter’s susceptibility to the “lower taxes” meme. Right now, that does not seem to be a big issue (especially when Democrats are counterprogramming by raising the issue of “tax fairness.”)
Postscript 6 (February 2016). I’ll admit it. These past few months have been fascinating for presidential politics. I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the popularity of Bernie Sanders. I suspect many Americans are receptive to his overall message and just want to hang their hopes on a non-Hilary Democrat. (He is also helped by the GOP concern trolling). It’s ironic that someone who rails against money in politics seems to have have attracted so many (grassroots) donations. I hate to say it, but the Republicans really don’t seem to be playing any issues except foreign policy. While it’s perfectly ok to criticize Obama/Clinton on foreign policy, it overlooks the fact that 1)Obama’s foreign policy overall has been run very deftly, 2)Clinton has an in-depth knowledge of the subject (not to mention personal relationships). Really, all the Democrats need to do is point out how shrill the GOP positions seem to be about any foreign policy issue. Strangely, Trump is the only person who spends any time talking about the “business” aspects of globalism. (Cruz does it very eloquently, but he seems more worried about UN encroachment on US sovereignty than anything else).
I still think that this race is Hilary’s to lose, but perhaps a winnowing of GOP candidates might allow a credible GOP candidate to inject values without sounding like he’s grandstanding. Interestingly, in the last week the attention seems to have drifted to the ex-governor candidates, which I would argue is a good thing. Kasich/Bush/Christie all seem to have “leadership qualities” missing in the junior senators. While Bush and Kasich fight over the remaining slot for moderate, I’m convinced that there simply can’t be two candidates from Florida; both pose existential threats to the other. So right now, it looks like a Trump vs. Bush vs. Cruz matchup.
The more I follow this race, the more convinced I am that Mitt Romney would have been the ideal candidate for this cycle. (I am feeling a lot of Romney nostalgia right now). Against Obama (who I regard as the type of leader who appears once in a lifetime), no Republican could have beaten him. But Clinton is beatable. Reflecting on the presidential race, I just realized that the most likely matchup will be HILARY CLINTON/JULIAN CASTRO vs. JEB BUSH/NIKKI HALEY. That would be a remarkable matchup because 1)both sides would consist of a man and a woman, 2)both sides would consist of 1 Caucasian and 1 person with a mixed ethnic background. Even though the MCCAIN/PALIN team was seriously defective, I think it’s a good template to have for a leadership team. Obviously there’s a fine line between inclusiveness and tokenism, but I expect that from now on, having a coed presidential team will be the norm rather than the exception.
I normally don’t watch TV dramas or procedurals. They are dull and predictable. I started making exceptions for supernatural sexy teen angst shows like Buffy the Vampire Slayer, but really the entire series is silly.
I have done some binge watching of TV shows — I once watched 20 episodes of Lost in 26 hours. That show is well-executed and produced, and I really don’t mind the supernatural aspects of the show even though the flashbacks are mostly dull. Recently I’ve started re-watching episodes of Lost — skipping through the flashbacks and taking notes on what worked well and how the show managed to be what it became. There’s a lot to hate about the story, but for certain scenes, I just think the writers must think TV watchers are idiots.
Take this example:
Season 3 opener features a group of scientists doing all kinds of suspicious research (medical and otherwise) on an island. They hear and see a jetliner heading for an inevitable crash on the island. Under these circumstances, how would the scientists react? Do they:
send out some of their people to the crash scene to offer assistance?
ignore the crash entirely and return to their normal business?
Send out some of their own people to pretend to be crash victims so they can spy and report back?
If you chose option 3, congratulations! You have the limited imagination of a TV writer.
Even if you assume that these researchers from the Dharma Initiative are semi-evil or hostile or reluctant to socialize, having them pretend to be crash victims is pretty much the dumbest thing you can do under the circumstances. Yet it’s necessary for the plot. It makes me realize that the show I’m watching is essentially silly and manipulative and that hours of Bergman and Sembene Ousmane are still waiting to be watched.
I sometimes enjoy escapism and shallow conflicts and characters. I just want it to make sense.
Can you imagine the same Lost show if 1)there were no guns, 2)all the main characters were uglier and older, 3)people weren’t always dying at someone else’s hand? and 4)people weren’t always trying to remove bullets with silverware or their hands? How strange that we watch such silly shows when our own lives are already packed with turmoil and frustrations. Don’t underestimate the dramatic or comic potential of our mundane lives.
It’s unfair to compare a book to a TV show, but being stranded on an island offers a lot of drama already. How do you find food and water? How do you handle health and hygiene? How do you not get depressed or bored? How do you use your creativity or ingenuity to fix things and come up with stopgap solutions? That is exciting stuff– and that’s why Robinson Crusoe was such a great read.
Contrast that with Lost where you have to throw in evil scientists, psychotic killers, imaginary predators, time travel and the fact that everyone is boinking everyone else as indiscriminately as a porn film.
Later, I will try to explain the things about Lost which actually work well. For now though, let’s marvel at how gullible most TV shows think we are.
(This was written a few days after the mass killing by a lone gunman at a Connecticut elementary school which claimed 27 lives).
For the past few years, my mom and I have been busy guessing who will be picked as person of the year by Time magazine. So far I had selected John Roberts (for trying to manage a polarized judicial system and political system) and Steven Colbert. Colbert is my personal favorite; he is an American original; his satirical edge is always on-target and takes Poe’s law to its extreme. Conservatives would probably enjoy him too (even if they recognize that he is poking fun of him). I think the presence of Colbert and Stewart (and probably others) contributes to political culture without poisoning the discourse. We should all be thankful for rhetoricians like Colbert. I never cease to be amazed at how effectively Colbert conveys his ironic message underneath the apparently conservative rhetoric.
Over the weekend, though, I’ve decided that this has to be the year of the Lone Gunman. Yes, GunMAN (these types tend to be males – although not exclusively). The Lone Gunman has the potential to move society at will; he has some personality malady and lives in a society that not only permits the ownership of gun for personal protection – it encourages it.
It’s a personality type; I lose track of which individual is which – how many calibers are their weapons and how many rounds are fired – even how many have died. As gracious as presidents are when giving these eulogies, I almost wish they weren’t there to do that. The president’s primary role should be decider-in-chief, not comforter-in-chief. The schedule of the decider-in-chief ought not to be set by the Lone Gunman. Yes, I realize that comforting the afflicted is politically expedient and it’s a natural role for a president to fall into. It is society’s way of recognizing the enormity of a tragedy. It also happens to be counterproductive for society as a whole.
Politicians can and should enact laws to solve problems. They should be held accountable if they don’t or if they fail to support the correct policy. When politicians offer comforting words during these times of mourning, it obscures the fact that the politician is not in fact aggressively fighting for laws to combat the problem.
Update #2. Looking at the previous winners, I realize that very few women have won the award, no entertainers have won the award, many international politicians have won the award and that “gimmicky” awards to groups or things tend to occur roughly once very 5 years (and since last year the winner was The Protester, it seems unlikely to happen 2 years in a row). I still vote for Stephen Colbert – who would be a nice change of pace.
Today, while waiting in line at the supermarket, I picked up a tabloid with the headline “Doris Day’s Secret Life.” I was mildly curious, if only because these tabloid publications rarely covered celebrities from so far back. It’s hard to remember that merely because celebrities drop out of public life doesn’t mean that they’re dead. (Ask Luise Rainer) . I read recently that one of the Andrew Sisters was still alive (a fact that both shocks and exhilarates me). If/When I am 90, what will I think about the world or technology or pop culture?
Anyway, I thumbed through the pages of the tabloid for the article – skipping through various entertainment news, astrology columns, that sort of thing. I wondered if addictions or sexual peccadilloes or personal tragedies would be part of this secret life, but when I came to the article on the last page, I learn that Doris Day was an old person in California who didn’t like interviews. In fact, the apparent reason for this lazy article was that Doris Day was promoting her charity for stray animals.
So that is Doris Day’s secret life!!!! Now I should be satisfied.
Update: Apparently Doris Day has had a lot of romantic heartbreak in her life (also here). In the seventies she was involved in a lawsuit of epic proportions against her husband’s business partner which lasted for 15 years and which she won (although not to great result). All things considered, perhaps it is fitting that Doris Day’s secret life should remain a secret.
After watching it, I asked myself, who is this blonde girl? Is she famous? Does she have a name? And was this stupidity just an act or was she truly as ignorant about geography that the show portrayed?
Googling a little, I see she was an American Idol contestant.
She did a great and spunky American Idol audition here. I can’t really judge her musical talent, but she was pretty and had a strong and striking voice. It’s no surprise that she would make it to Hollywood – although it’s also no surprise that she wouldn’t win – these things are popularity contests anyway.
I’m not really a fan of country music – although I can listen to it in small amounts. I guess my problem is not so much country music as the packaged country music which always sounds jingoistic, overproduced and bland. The music videos are even worse. At least with rap, you had clever lyrics and visual puns. But given her North Carolina background, it’s no surprise that Pickler would be attracted to that genre.
These are great – and these are classic TV moments, and yet I realize that I barely had listened to her sing. One of her most famous songs, I Wonder, was sung with tears at the CMA awards – a moving performance reminiscent of one of my alltime tear-jerkers, Jennifer Lopez’s singing of Selena’s I could fall in love with you ). Reading through the notes, I discover that Pickler has a sad family history. The song was about her estrangement from her mother; apparently her father was an abusive criminal who drove her mother to run away and leave Kellie with her grandparents. Kellie’s mother had engaged in some small criminal activity herself, and after her father was put in prison, the mother returned to take custody again. That lasted for two years, after which both Kellie and her grandparents claim the mother was physically and verbally abusive. A court released her to the grandparents once again, resulting in a permanent estrangement between mother and daughter.
Now of course, Pickler is famous and probably rich, and so her biography probably becomes more of an issue than it would be for most people. Her mother (Cynthia Malone) came forward and gave some interviews. In this news interview, she describes the turbulent marriage:
She said her mother gave her an ultimatum.
“To have an abortion or leave,” Malone said.
So she left and married Clyde Pickler. She said it didn’t take long before she was being beaten again.
“It started with the alcohol, and then it went into other drugs, and the further along I got the worse it got,” she said. “In my pregnancy I was being hit. I about miscarried several times.”
“I went to my baby shower with a busted lip and a black eye,” she said.
Malone claims many people were aware of the abuse but did nothing to stop it. She said when she realized her life was at risk, she had to go.
“When I thought I was going to be killed, I knew it was coming down to it was going to be me or him,” she said.
What was the worst thing that happened – the worst that you’ve felt?” Bryant asked.
“Leaving my baby, leaving my baby — that was the hardest decision I had to make,” Malone said.
(Here are two video clips here and here). On camera the mother seems like a level-headed woman. She seems like a genuine victim with remorse. At the same time, in an uncharacteristically angry TV interview, Kellie Pickler accuses her mother of lying, of doing a good acting job for the camera and warns her mother never to return to her again. In fact, when Pickler gave a concert in Raleigh, NC, she equipped police officers at the concert hall with photos of the mother to prevent her from making contact. (By the way, great job to the local TV journalists for such a balanced and sensitive portrayal of this human drama). The TV report makes clear that Kellie Pickler’s version of events is a lot more complicated than it first appears. The mother may have made bad decisions and had problems, but for now it seems drowned out by the Pickler publicity machine. Maybe at some point they can have a (private) reconciliation, and that Kellie can see her mother with different eyes later.
It is a great drama with many tragic dimensions. For the daughter, the pain is too real, and yet her fame brought her the power and independence to detach herself from it. She is using her music to work through the pain of growing up while at the same time exploiting it for her show business career. All artists have a shtick, and I guess there’s dignity in trying to make your music or art about something real. (Country performers have that knack, it seems.)
Celebrities have to create a personality brand, and I guess it’s better to turn yourself into a ditzy country belle than a victim of a Southern family trauma. Maybe some individuals prefer hiding their personality and focusing just on performance or art; actually, that’s pretty easy to do if you’re not a megastar. But a megastar like Sheryl Crow doesn’t seem to have any colorful persona during her TV concerts or talk show appearances; she is there just to sing. Maybe Crow makes a few asides in between songs, but she’s not really trying to weave a biographical narrative. She doesn’t try to be funny; she just doesn’t need to. Sheryl Crow belongs to my personal pantheon of great singers, and her music videos have always been bold and expressive (though I suspect this is more a result of Crow’s publicity team than artistic muse).
But Pickler seems to have an insane need to be liked. She is needy but funny. Her upbringing might account for it; the need to be funny can mask all kinds of insecurities. Talk to any comedian on tour, and you’ll find someone with a drinking problem, a history of failed relationships and a caustic attitude towards life. Ok, I am generalizing, but this is true more often that we’d care to admit; what kind of person would try to make a living out of being funny – no matter how hard? I once had a teacher who was the funniest and most clever person I’d ever met. Her wit was on a par with Oscar Wilde. I got to know her rather well; she had a very prominent and visible role in her community, but later I began to feel that her public eloquence was a ruse to misdirect her audience from her actual personality. I actually had no idea what this woman was like inside. I had no idea if she was insecure or distraught or happy. Her wit was not only intimidating and distracting, it drowned out any kind of semi-ordinary conversation.
Actors are like that, as are many writers. I find – if I want to — I can offer scintillating wit in conversation .. and at the same time say nothing of importance! Even when I seem to be talking about myself or confessing something sincerely, most of it is for entertainment purposes only. As much as I like to gab, I’ve also learned to turn it off, or else it would drive people crazy…not to mention myself.
Authentic conversation – what is it? Awkward pauses, long stretches of conversation, lots of uhhs and outright misunderstanding of the speaker’s true intentions until days or weeks later. What was the person saying? What were they really saying? Did I say the right thing? Or was it better just to respond spontaneously … no matter how awkward-sounding? Two weeks ago a close friend told me a secret which stunned me. I just didn’t know what to say; it was a really important revelation – and even though we moved onto other subjects, the topic still loomed over the rest of our conversation. She wasn’t a verbal person – but when she tried to articulate something, it was vital to pay attention.
Listen carefully – I’m serious! — the person who is making you laugh might be trying to avoid a full and unvarnished conversation.
Verbiage can be interesting and revealing; they are nice ornaments to personality. I once read a book called “I Know You are Lying” by Mark McLish. McClish trained federal marshals in interviewing suspects. McLish takes public statements of people in scandals (such as Herman Cain and Jerry Sandusky) and calls attention to verbal tics which suggest subterfuge. For writers and readers, this is no great surprise, and indeed that’s what we like about literature – the roundabout clues that are baked inside narratives.
The funny thing is, Pickler strikes me as an open and honest person. She doesn’t lie; she misdirects. Ok, sure she might exaggerate a few details in her stories (we all do that). To have survived a broken household and not to be worn down by the relentless celebrity machine says something about her survival skills, her perseverance and her preternatural faith that things will turn out for the best. Sure, we can thank her grandparents for that, but I believe it also has to come within Pickler herself. We can say that good looks explain her success, and that may be true; on the other hand, we could also say that good looks make you more cynical about all kinds of human relationships. Everyone wants to sleep with you or envies your popularity.
Pickler doesn’t strike me as cynical. Cynicism is a disease which affects mainly teenagers, the retired, and criminals. If you are 30 or 40, you are too busy to be cynical about anything. I’m always cynical after long bouts of unemployment, but once I find a job again, voila! that cynicism is gone. Even when in pain and desperate circumstances, most people don’t become cynical; they still remember how great life used to be; that’s the kind of life they still long for. The longing to recapture a pleasant life can often be the best antidote against cynicism (even if recapturing it turns out to be impossible).
Cynicism is what happens when you feel betrayed by someone. Betrayal doesn’t just mean “cheating” or “lying.” You feel betrayed when what has been implicitly promised to you never materializes or when someone you counted upon has failed to come through. By that definition, I guess we can say that Pickler has the perfect right to be doubly-cynical (because she has been twice-betrayed). She may still be at the stage where the pain is still too close; this pain can interfere with the empathy that would come naturally to someone so kind-hearted. She has spoken publicly about forgiveness, and maybe she has reached this point; regardless she has already found a lot of caring people to restore this trust. I’m sure she will pour this kindness into all kinds of charities.
Talk show ditziness is fine (for a while at least), but eventually Pickler will find that making people laugh is less important than making them care and helping them to resist the terrible sting of cynicism.
An odd fact: I was once mistaken for a Teabagger. It’s true. I was a proto-teabagger. I was outraged at the bank bailouts especially because it meant shortchanging public services like education. The protest was sparsely attended but focused. I met teachers, investment bankers (!) and a token LaRouche groupie. All in all a positive experience – even if it didn’t really satisfy my desire to see the system changed.
I was going to a Saturday tech conference on this same day and mentioned to someone there that I had been protesting the bank bailouts. “What? Are you one of these tea baggers?” He said it with a straight face, and I was horrified. Did he really think that I was the type of person to fall for that malarky? The Glen Beck Tea Party movement was just getting off the ground, and the voices of reasonable people were being drowned out the right-wing rabble. (To be fair: a lot of things were going on in April; we still didn’t know what had hit us in Fall, 2008). But I couldn’t believe anyone would take the rantings of Beck etc seriously. They were irrational. Also, a lot of their anger seem misdirected. I am resigned to the fact that our political leaders make mistakes, and the fact that we approved such a gigantic TARP/GM/AIG/Citi bailout disappointed me, but it hardly surprised me. I knew that the bailouts would affect the political dynamic somehow; I just didn’t know what form it would take or who would benefit from it.
But I didn’t seem to appreciate 1)that the media would find the movement so fascinating, 2)that it would influence Texas politics so strongly and 3)that it would outlast its promotion on Fox.
My theory is that the driving force behind tea parties was not Fox News but right-wing talk radio. Sure, Fox gives glitz and glamour to this political movement, but talk radio allows nonstop ranting and sarcasm while also letting people hear other angry citizens vent. The paradox of course is that the only people who listen to right-wing radio are right-wingers, so these people wouldn’t have an inkling of how out-of-the-mainstream right-wing political views are.
Contrast that with something like CSPAN (good lord; why can’t we have CSPAN on radio? ) They have a telephone call in show in the morning which is great – exposing people to a lot of viewpoints with hosts who are polite, respectful and soft-spoken. (“Sir, can you turn your radio down please?”) I don’t have CSPAN, but I love hearing the medley of voices on the rare occasions when I do. It is like hearing an audio version of a Studs Terkel book. I hear a variety of political viewpoints – some cranks to be sure, but most are reasonable even if they are not particularly informed. Of course, I don’t claim to be informed about lots of things; perhaps our political problem is that everybody thinks they are 1)right and 2)smarter than everybody else.
They weren’t around protesting during the Bush years BECAUSE THE TEA PARTY IS REPUBLICANS. They don’t care about the deficit. They care that a Democrat (and a black “Muslim,” to boot), is in the White House. They don’t care about fiscal restraint, they care that a Democrat is in the White House. They don’t, as some foolishly pretend, care about the Wall Street excesses. Certainly Cenk Uyger is not the only one who has noticed that the tea party bubbas could all be shipped to protest HCR, but the big money boys aren’t running the buses to protest Wall Street. They care that there is a Democrat in the White House.
Steve Benen started a great thread about the inane logic of teabaggers. Here are some comments (mainly about the misdirected anger and Friedman’s loony idea that they could be turned into some environmental group aka Green Tea Party). The comments are both rude and educated and truthful.
My own father is a Tea-bagger and started screaming at me because I dared to contradict his Fox News narrative that “the vast majority of the national debt has been added by Obama in 1 only year.”
I went to the U.S. treasury web-site and quoted the actual budget statistics that proved that the vast majority of the debt was created by Bush & the Republicans. All he could do was shout “That’s not true.”
“I’m looking right now at the official U.S. Dept. of the Treasury web-site.”
“That’s just not true.”
When I told him exactly what the official numbers show he just got angry and hung up the phone.
That’s the tea-bagger response in a nut-shell. You can’t argue or reason with them and facts are irrelevant. They have their OWN facts which cannot be contradicted.
The media narrative gives these people power. Friedman and others like him will keep seeking for reason in their wild ranting, and argue that the rest of the country has to move more towards the tea-bag view of the world as part of our duty to be “bi-partisan.”
It’s a tilted scale that always says we have to move endlessly to placate the right-wing no matter how determined they are never to be satisfied. Because they must be angry about SOMETHING, so it’s our duty to find out what it is and move to satisfy them.
Why? Because they’re “the American people”. Apparently black and brown people are not “real Americans” and Democrats cannot legitimately run things because they depend on the votes of “non-real Americans.”
***
Ever take public transit?
The entire teabagging party seems to be that crowd of riders at the bus stop that wasn’t paying much attention when it should have, and now is just realizing it’s been waiting at the stop while the bus has already departed, years ago!
The anger we’ve witnesses over the past year is the kind that foments when a person realizes he’s been ripped off, but can’t quite figure out who’s the one who ripped him off.
Well, we are graciously blessed with the teabagging party simply because their fearful bus drivers, Bush and Cheney, have left them stranded in the dust, and now they think the new muslim kid is going to steal their fares money!
***
The driving force is race. Not so much anger at a black president (though Obama provides a convenient focus that helps concentrate their rage), but at the TP’ers belief that liberal/Democratic policies tend to redistribute towards people of color.
A great indicator of the fundamental racism of the Tea Partiers is their frequent complaint (echoed in the Remember November video, and elsewhere) that Obama and the Dems “ignore the will of the people.” They can count votes, they know they lost the election – what they’re really saying is that all those non-white people who voted for Obama and the Dems shouldn’t really count.
***
Middle class whites have very little chance of getting into the tier I universities that are about the only course left for whites to succeed in the U.S. Since they have little chance of that happening, the middle class whites are left to compete with immigrants for jobs in health care, with blacks for government jobs, and with Hispanics for construction jobs.
Since whites have smaller families and a different culture that Asian, the middle east, southern Asia, or South American immigrants, whites cannot depend on tribal, clannish, or ethnic based groups to help to support them. Look at how few whites of any class major in engineering or the science, look at how middle class whites are leaving California because there is no future for them there.
California is about a half a generation ahead of the rest of the U.S. as far as whites are concerned the future does not look good.
***
Mr. Benen is correct since the Teabaggers only want budget cuts affecting everybody else BUT their own direct interest. You never hear any of them giving up their own SS and MC, but they want it abolished for everybody else. They complain about socialism yet also complain about the condition of the roads and subways. Hey, teabagging assholes! Do you see Microsuck or CocaCola building roads and subways? (They might put ads in/next to them, but not send out their own road crews)
They’re just angry McPalin voters who can’t stand a black guy with more brains, power, and insight than them.
I noticed that mediamatters is now factchecking the statements made on the Sunday talk shows. I don’t know how hard this is, but it’s extremely convenient to have this as a reference. Up until recently, TV commentary was provided only on Sunday talk shows. Now with 24 hour cable, we have news commentary shows that appear in Prime Time. The fact that political shows seem to be successful at prime time or late night on weeknights indicates how politicized a country we have become.
ABC’s "This Week" held its usual roundtable discussion this morning, with Elizabeth Vargas hosting a panel of Cokie Roberts, Sam Donaldson, George Will, and Paul Krugman.
The last topic of conversation was introduced by Vargas this way:
"[O]f course, this weekend, we have a brand-new White House social secretary appointed to replace Desiree Rogers, a close friend of the Obamas who is exiting after a bumpy tenure, I would say. Cokie, you spoke with her. She — she was highly criticized after the Obamas’ first state dinner in which she arrived, looking absolutely gorgeous, but in what some people later said was far too fancy a dress, but most importantly, that was the state dinner that was crashed by the Salahis, who walked in without an invitation when the social secretary’s office didn’t have people manning the security sites."
This led to a surprisingly long chat about Desiree Rogers.
Krugman sat silently while the discussion went on (and on), before eventually interjecting:
"Can I say that 20 million Americans unemployed, the fact that we’re worrying about the status of the White House social secretary….
Donaldson responded, "Paul, welcome to Washington."
Steve Benen comments:
But this panel discussion covered exactly four subjects this morning: health care reform, Charlie Rangel’s ethics problem, David Paterson’s latest troubles, and the fate of the former White House social secretary (and where she’s from, what her clothes looked like, what her next job is likely to be, etc.), which hardly seems relevant to anyone who doesn’t actually attend social events at the White House.
In this same discussion, there was nothing about the jobs bill that passed the Senate this week, nothing about the incredibly important Zazi guilty plea this week (and the fact that it makes Republican talking points look ridiculous), nothing about Jim Bunning single-handedly delaying unemployment insurance for those who need it.
(Wow, am I the only one who missed the fact that Zazi plead guilty!?
The people at Washington Monthly have funny observations about this exchange:
Donaldson responded, "Paul, welcome to Washington."
Longer Sam Donaldson: "Washington is a fundamentally unserious place, completely removed from and uncaring about the problems afflicting ordinary Americans. Deal with it."
***
The Sunday morning talk show is the Washington Beltway Establishment on parade. In no other place can you expect to see a party now controlled by its radical fringes, where elected Republican lawmakers are no longer in charge of their party must instead take orders from their far right factions, cable news broadcasters and talk radio demagogues. And yet they are still treated as royalty on these shows, fully the equal with Democrats who have won the past two elections.
There is an unspoken code on these shows, and one of them is not to notice that Republicans have completely lost their minds. Watching insiders like David Gregory and George Stephanopolous preside over these farces you really start to believe that Washington has become another Court of Versailles.
***
"Hey Krugman! Here’s a Nobel Prize in Shut Yer Mouth!"
***
This is just standard high school stuff. The popular kids let one of the brainy nerds (Krugman, Maddow) sit at their table, but the eggheads always wanna talk about boring ol’ policy instead of wailing on the unpopular girl’s clothes and hair. "Welcome to Washington" = Like, what-ever.
***
"Paul, welcome to Washington."
Google Translate:
"Paul, most of us can’t even get our kids into Princeton, much less teach there. We rise through sycophancy and ingratiation, and we assume that, being trivial ourselves, that the rest of the world is not. We don’t consciously try to create a tableau vivant from the pages of Laclos–or unconsciously either; for people like us, "Dangerous Liaisons" is that movie where Uma Thurman takes her top off. So go back to New Jersey and worry about the little people, while we go off to Sally’s brunch."
***
"I wonder, who was the target audience for the discussion of Desiree Rogers…"
The same as the audience for the Rangel and Paterson stories–namely, people who enjoy hearing about black people screwing up.
I no longer watch the Sunday talk shows. (Wolf Blitzer does a good job – if you can stand the commercials). Fareed Zakaria’s GPS is by far the most cerebral shows out there. I just love how occasionally CNN will give a prime spot to someone who actually knows what they’re talking about.
Let me see. What is my multimedia news diet these days?
PBS Newshour (occasionally, but especially Friday with Shields & Brooks)
Washington Week in Review (smart reporters give the inside scoop on everything)
Bill Moyers (still the best; see also NOW on PBS).
Best of the Left podcast… Takes snippets from the political satire and commentary shows.
Fareed Zakaria’s GPS
McLaughlin Report. This retro program features blowhards from all political sides. What I like about it is 1)it lets me hear the loony rightwing talking point of the week (which I would otherwise miss). I sometimes learn a lot of things about political culture – for example that lots of conservatives still deny global warming as a reality. 2)Jim McLaughlin is good at identifying the next big hot issues. I always learn a few new things each time I watch, and it’s not only the extent of right-wing foolishness.
The actor who played the annoying Screech in Saved by the Bell tells how he picked up women: walk around Disneyland until a teenage girl recognizes him and starts hanging around. (From an amusing book review written by Sam Greenspan).
“I thought I was going to die, we were so high up,” the card said. “I thought to myself: I hope we don’t crash and burn or worse yet landing in the ocean, living through it, only to be eaten by sharks, or worse yet, end up on some place like Gilligan’s Island, stranded, or worse yet, be eaten by a tribe of headhunters, speaking of headhunters, why do they just eat outsiders, and not the family members? Strange … and what if the plane ripped apart in mid-flight and we plumited (sic) to earth, landed on Gilligan’s Island and then lived through it, and the only woman there was Mrs. Thurston Howell III? No Mary Anne (my favorite) no Ginger, just Lovey! If it were just her, I think I’d opt for the sharks, maybe the headhunters.”
By the way, they expect to release a Gilligan’s Island remake in 2011. I can’t wait (seriously). I also really can’t wait until the sequel to Wall Street is released in February. I admit I’m a sucker for sequels – especially when the original writers go against the grain and try something peculiar (time travel, go to Vegas or get the band/crime-fighting duo back together), If all goes well, I’ll be receiving my Get Smart sequels in the mail tonight. (Apparently they did several TV sequels in the 1990s).
When someone asked Sarah Palin this question ( “I’d like to know that all that oil we’re going to drill here is going to stay here domestically and it’s not going to be exported by the oil companies.”), Palin gives a doozy of an answer:
Oil (of coal), of course, is a fungible commodity and they don’t flag, ya know, the molecules where, where it’s going to where it’s not but and in the, in the sense of the Congress today they know our very, very hungry domestic markets that need that oil first. So I believe that what Congress is going to do also is not to allow the export bans to such a degree that it’s Americans who get stuck holding the bag without the energy source that is produced here, pumped here, it’s gotta flow into our domestic markets first.
I had been having a back-and-forth about global warming with a friend in Japan. Just on a lark, I sent a silly music video that was a remix of an infomercial . It is absurd and yet it’s hard to resist rewatching (“Stop having boring tuna!”).
My friend in Japan is a bit crazy, but he’s generally pretty tuned into American culture (he grew up in Houston). A few hours later, he replied by sending me another remix of the song; apparently not only had he already seen the video, but he had found a “better” version. I couldn’t believe it. This video was just a minor example of American pop culture, but apparently my friend saw it before I did.
A few years ago I used to take comfort in William Gibson’s thought that the future is already here; but it’s unevenly distributed. I would still receive the occasional email about Nieman-Marcus cookies or the Bill Gates chain mail for charity. It comforted me that people were stumbling upon these things for the first time while for other people like me, it was old hat. It made me feel so hip and avante-garde.
Nowadays, I am no longer so sure. An Albanian friend of mine watches Friends more religiously than I ever did. A Brazilian friend of mine had also watched every episode of Lost (I knew Lost was a worldwide phenomena; I just didn’t know that the level of obsession was to be found everywhere). A Ukrainian friend is telling me he has already seen the music video I sent him, and I tell him I had already seen the crazy stunt video he had sent me. I had been reading an obscure and erudite book on a provocative topic, and I find to my astonishment that my Albanian friend had been reading a pirated digital version of the exact same book! I thought I had found something unique and unknown when I discovered a wedding dance video and my family members told me they enjoyed watching it. That dance video was on CNN a day later; the same thing happened for the United Breaks Guitars song and several other minor Internet phenomena. Since when has CNN been so quick to identify cultural trends? (My glib answer would be: ever since the invention of Digg, Reddit and Google Hot Trends). Media outlets like CNN amplify certain aspects of pop culture (creating enough momentum for these trends to take off). Facebook has certainly added a new dimensi0n to everything. Now you see the memes which are infecting your friends, and you infect other friends with the same Meme. Assuming that your friends are interested in the same kinds of things, it now seems that you are sharing the same cultural signposts.
For a while, I thought Slashdot was driving the cultural memes in geek culture (and to a lesser extent, Metafilter). Then it was Digg and then it was BoingBoing (actually BoingBoing was always big and still is). Now it seems that the video clip sites are taking over (Collegehumor, blip.tv, etc) while certain political icons are also exerting a lot of influence (Andrew Sullivan, Matt Yglesias, Tyler Cowen). For a while, I stopped blogging about anything that appeared in Slashdot or BoingBoing. I just assumed that if it had appeared on BoingBoing, the world had already heard of it.
Is it possible that Internet memes transcend cultural and geographic boundaries? Obviously email and facebook allow URLs to be shared, and so it is theoretically possible. On the other hand, I would expect aspects of pop America to interest only Americans (and maybe only English-speaking countries). Yet that does not appear to be the case. On the other hand, this may simply reflect the fact that English still exerts a lot of influence over world culture; surely that is changing; pretty soon Philipinos or Brazilians will no longer be interested in our stupid music videos (and we will no longer be interested in theirs).
I really don’t think there is anything magical about the Internet memes I have described. The wedding dance video just isn’t that funny or clever. But it took off because people found it cute enough to share with friends. (One characteristic of an Internet meme is its harmlessness and inoffensiveness; if an Internet meme were offensive, it wouldn’t be shared as often). This criteria of inoffensiveness meshes perfectly with the criteria of mainstream media (which cannot risk offending its audience or advertisers). Even though Big Media amplifies certain aspects of pop culture, I doubt that they are wholly responsible for it.
Perhaps these cultural memes serve as social exchanges, and the ability to recognize these memes as potential social exchanges is hard-wired in our brains. Certain messages and jokes are shareable; certain ones are not, and the unconscious human brain is equipped to tell the difference. Perhaps cave man would have some synapse in their brain that fired at the sight of the Slap Chop video which would have prompted him to want to share it.
Post-script: “Lewis Black’s Law” (mentioned here) states even if you don’t seek out Internet sensations, they will come finding you, hounding you nonstop until the winds of the fad die down. I guess the opportunity to miss the Gangnam Style sensations is a rare privilege to be savored.
Post-script 2: There will soon come a time when people who stumble upon this blog entry (if it exists) will not recognize any of the references or names. At this point they will need to consult some archive of historical Internet memes (if they are motivated enough). A meme is bad enough when it is first born. Later though, it will be viewed as tiresome historical curiosities which perhaps can be co-opted by another meme which is newer and more ludicrous.
A few years ago I came across this hilarious gossip site and even blogged about it. But the site name “The List” was horribly generic, so much that I couldn’t even search my own site to find out the original URL. (I tried several times).
Quite by accident I stumbled upon my mention of it on my blog yesterday, and so I immediately checked the URL. The Geocities link is dead, but through the magic of the Wayback Machine, we see the original List here (Version 6.1, last updated March 31 2004). I can’t vouch for the accuracy of the information here, but in general many of the casual remarks have been turned out to be true, and the descriptions were witty and fun. (Apparently there is copious information on gossip sites about people’s tipping habits).
Gosh, it must be hard being a celebrity. They will treat you like trash when you are alive and like an angel after you dead.
It goes without saying, but a lot of really cool sites just die because of the content creator’s neglect or because a free webhost went offline. My friend Michael Barrett still bears an unceasing grudge against me for recommending that he publish items on the now defunct themestream (more on themestream here). Themestream was a Ponzi scheme back in the days of early Internet giddiness.
Every day on Twitter, news of another death. Les Paul, John Hughes, Farrah Fawcett, those big names, but also the editor at this publication, the founder of this startup, the people who we might not all know, but someone you know knew them and they are using the space to remember them.
Sure, Maria Shriver’s euology made me sit up straighter and think I want to be like that. But, I mean, was I supposed to be shocked that Eunice Kennedy passed on? I guess it’s small talk of a darker sort. You could talk about the weather or whose heart stopped.
Sometimes I feel like I don’t want to sign on Twitter, precisely for that reason. What if David Cronenberg died? Or Bill Callahan? Sophia Coppola, Rachel Maddow, Tilda Swinton, anyone I like.
Hmmm, I wonder, if media companies like Universal or Time-Warner ever stand to gain financially from reporting about the death of Heath Ledger/Michael Jackson/Brittany Murply. Would that even be possible?
So there is no geek literary movement. There are geeks that write, some even embrace their geekiness, but no work is about to oust “Eat, Pray, Love” or “The Corrections” as the dominant publishing ideal. Maybe the reason “l33terati” never happened is all the geek writers value tl, dr above everything else.
If there is a “l33terati,” they aren’t writing novels or even short stories. They are writing flash-super-super-flash fiction or flash-super-super-flash creative nonfiction. That quick evocative half-poetry, half-advertising that is “A diamond is forever” or “if you lived here, you’d be home now,” well you can find it on Twitter every day.
Books ought to be so cheap that we can throw them away if we do not like them, or give them away if we do. Moreover, it is absurd to print every book as if it were fated to last a hundred years. The life of the average book is perhaps three months. Why not face this fact? Why not print the first edition on some perishable material which would crumble to a little heap of perfectly clean dust in about six months time? If a second edition were needed, this could be printed on good paper and well bound. Thus by far the greater number of books would die a natural death in three months or so. No space would be wasted and no dirt would be collected.