Vice Presidential Predictions

According to Intrade, a kind of prediction market , here are the current odds on Democratic party vice presidential pick:

  • Joe Biden 52% (10% jump from yesterday)
  • Evan Bayh  24%,
  • Tim Kaine, 16% (5% jump from yesterday)
  • Wesley Clarke 13.5 (3% jump from yesterday)

(For the record, Romney and Pawlenty are neck and neck for Republican VP prediction, but who cares).

Interestingly, Hilary appears in single digits, although she is wildly popular in tossup states. That’s who I’m leaning towards.

Vice-presidents are not supposed to matter that much in elections, although they do affect the nature of governance. Gore had a seat on the table for important decisions (and was able to argue for deficit reduction early in the early 1990, make trial balloons, set the climate change agenda and chair a Better Government commission.

Cheney and his staff had enormous input into the direction of foreign policy and specifically about the implementation of war (for better or worse).

Ironically, Clinton may not be effective as a presidential substitute, but she would be effective promoting one or two key issues. But of course, you don’t need to be VP for that.







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